As the election approaches, candidates, campaigners and pollsters agree on one thing: the path to victory is much narrower for Peter Dutton than it was at the start of the year.
But memories of 2019, when Scott Morrison defied expectations to trounce Bill Shorten in an election night “miracle”, are too fresh for anyone to declare “game over”.
Another reason for caution is the “chaos factor” of voters splintering to third parties. And there are still a few days to go, even if millions of Australians have already voted.
But square together the published polls, the movements of leaders, the targeting of advertising, and what the campaigns themselves are saying about the state of the race, and a picture emerges that clearly favours Anthony Albanese.
A widely-held view in both camps is that Peter Dutton’s primary aspiration is not to form majority government — as he insists publicly — but rather to win eight to 10 seats and push Labor into an uncomfortable minority position.
On a good day, if the gain extends well beyond a dozen, a Dutton minority government could come into view, or a majority if he gains 20. But equally, if there is a swing towards Labor as some polls now predict, there are as many as 10 seats the Coalition could lose, including Dutton’s own.
It’s a position that has many in opposition ranks dejected and frustrated, while many on the Labor side feel comfortable if not jubilant.
But all agree there will be election night surprises, and stories in unexpected corners of the country that go against the national trend.
Victoria and the Allan factor
If Dutton can make headway, he will need to start in Melbourne, where Labor holds most of the seats but both sides agree the state government of Jacinta Allan has damaged the party brand.
Two months ago, published polls pointed to a swing of more than five per cent against Labor, enough to threaten losses all over the city.
The expectation is now of a swing closer to two or three per cent, with the “Allan factor” still the main drag on Labor’s vote but some suggestion that distaste for Dutton is balancing it out.
Labor campaigners believe two moments in particular hurt Dutton’s chances here and elsewhere — his claim that he could get a better tariff deal with Donald Trump, and his misjudgement on working from home.
The same two moments are often identified by Liberals as weak spots in the campaign, the work from home issue particularly damaging in seats with white collar workers, but also outer suburban seats where flexible work saves a lot of commute time.
While some in the Liberal camp were pleased to see Dutton recognise the damage and reverse course, others told the ABC they believed the backflip made matters worse, because it attracted extra attention from voters who had not heard about the policy in the first place, and also made him look indecisive.
All of this has evened up the picture in Victoria such that campaigners now expect Labor threats to be confined to perhaps five seats: Gorton and Hawke in the outer west, McEwen in the outer north, Aston and Chisholm in the east.
Other Labor-held marginals such as Dunkley and Bruce remain in scope if the damage is worse than expected, and Labor also faces competition from the Greens in Wills.
In the worst case for Labor, it’s enough to make retaining majority near-impossible on the basis of Victorian results alone.
But not all of those seats are equal. Perhaps the most likely to turn blue is Aston, both sides regarding Labor’s 2023 by-election win there as a honeymoon anomaly fuelled by a backlash against retiring MP Alan Tudge.
And the extent of anger at the state government seems greatest in the traditional Labor heartland of the west, especially in the seat of Gorton, which recorded enormous swings at the last state election.
The Liberal campaign does not seem to have made the same inroads in the east, leaving Labor more confident in Dunkley and even optimistic about ultra-marginal Chisholm, owing to a view that Chinese Australians will not back the Liberals in large numbers.
This eastern weakness also has some in the Labor camp confident of winning the seats of Menzies and Deakin, a view bolstered by the belief the Liberals have underspent there with their focus trained on the west.
But on the other hand, Liberals believe there is a chance of winning Kooyong and Goldstein back from teal independents, although polling those races is difficult.
Other seats to watch in Victoria
A heavy Liberal spend in Dan Tehan’s seat of Wannon looks likely to have bolstered his position there.
Independent challengers in Flinders and Monash in the state’s south-east are also notable, but regarded as more remote.
Both sides regard the Liberal candidate in Corangamite as a strong performer, but the apparent recovery in Labor’s vote has made the seat a more remote prospect, with a similar story for the Nationals candidate in Bendigo, where crime is also a prominent issue.
Macnamara will again be a three-cornered contest, the Liberals expected to perform best in Caulfield and the Greens in St Kilda, but Labor’s Josh Burns likely to benefit from the preferences of either opponent if he can finish in the top two.
Isaacs, Holt and Calwell were other Labor seats in the frame when the picture appeared stronger for the Liberals, but are no longer primary targets.
Labor more comfortable in NSW, but with more downside
If the Liberals can achieve a gain of perhaps five seats in Victoria, the path to government would then turn to New South Wales, where Labor is more comfortable and published polls suggest it may even gain a swing, but where it bears most of the risk.
Two of its most marginal seats are in the state — Bennelong in Sydney’s north, and Gilmore on the NSW South Coast.
Neither is considered a Liberal certainty and neither has seen much of Peter Dutton during the campaign, but both sides agree they remain too close to call.
The other Liberal focus is the marginal western Sydney seat of Werriwa, where the campaign launch was held.
It has similar outer suburban characteristics to Gorton and Hawke, central to Dutton’s electoral strategy and where his campaign hopes the fuel excise discount will be most tangible to those who commute long distances.
Similar hopes are held for regional seats including Paterson and Whitlam, but Liberal hopes for a much broader result along the NSW coastline has evaporated.
And meanwhile, NSW is home to perhaps the two Coalition seats most likely to fall to independents — Bradfield in Sydney’s north and the regional seat of Cowper.
Other seats to watch in NSW
An assortment of regional seats including Eden-Monaro, Dobell, Robertson, Hunter and Shortland were on the Liberal target list earlier in the campaign, and while some Liberals remain optimistic in patches, Labor is more confident of its position.
In Sydney, there is a similar story in Reid and Parramatta, with similar demographics to Bennelong but larger margins for Labor.
Labor is confident of Tony Burke’s survival against an independent challenge in Watson, while Dai Le’s seat of Fowler is considered up in the air.
Independent campaigns against the Nationals have some traction in Calare and Lyne, but both are considered remote chances. Mackellar is the only one of the trio of current Sydney teal-held seats where the Liberals believe they have a strong chance.
The northern rivers seat of Richmond was a three-cornered contest involving the Greens at the last election and is expected to be close again.
Could Dutton really lose his own seat in Queensland?
That more muted picture in NSW has most broadly expecting the status quo to prevail in that state. And further north in Queensland, it is the Coalition that faces the biggest risk of going backwards.
The Liberals have devoted substantial resources to the Labor seat of Blair around Ipswich, which is considered in play.
But Labor is confident of its chances in the Far North Queensland seat of Leichhardt, where popular long-serving Liberal Warren Entsch is retiring, and believes it stands at least some chance in the Brisbane seats of Bonner and Dickson.
The inclusion of Dutton’s own Dickson on that list is derided by those on the Liberal side, who see it as a fundraising ploy for Labor, a view Dutton himself has offered.
But Labor’s ad spend in the seat has increased and it sees similar middle-class suburban demographics to those who vote Labor in other cities.
The major parties are both eyeing off the inner-city Greens trio of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith, all difficult to predict given they are three-cornered contests, but with the broad consensus that the Greens are strongest in Griffith, Labor in Brisbane, and the Liberals in Ryan.
Labor brand stronger elsewhere
Labor’s prospects improve away from the east coast.
In South Australia and Western Australia, popular state governments and weaker Liberal brands advantage Labor, making the party confident of retaining Adelaide’s Boothby and possibly winning Sturt.
Given Labor’s stunning 2022 landslide in Perth, there is more risk on the downside here, with the new seat of Bullwinkel (notional Labor) and Tangney (Labor) regarded as too close to call.
In Tasmania, Peter Dutton has spent time in the Labor seat of Lyons but Labor is growing in confidence of a swing putting the Liberal seats of Bass and Braddon into play.
But in the NT, the Labor brand is perhaps weakest after a Country Liberal landslide in the territory elections, putting both Solomon and Lingiari in frame for the Liberals.
Other seats to watch nationwide
There are several prominent Liberal-teal clashes in Queensland in both the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast — chiefly in McPherson, Fairfax and Fisher — but none are regarded by those involved in the race as highly likely to switch.
The Liberals also added the Labor seat of Moreton in Brisbane to their final-week “blitz” of marginals.
In Western Australia, some more bullish Labor predictions would see wins in the Liberal seats of Moore and Canning, but these are considered remote.
An independent is considered a strong chance to claim the Liberal-held seat of Forrest in Margaret River, but the Liberal contest to reclaim Curtin is seen as line-ball.
An independent challenge to Labor in the Tasmania seat of Franklin gained some traction amid public anger over the salmon industry, but Labor is confident of its position, as it is against another independent in Fremantle.
Where should the goalposts be set?
The array of seats moving in all directions suggests a complicated count and makes predictions fraught, but both sides agree the baseline expectation is now a moderate Labor loss in Victoria, and a wash everywhere else — leaving Dutton a mountain to climb for his final-week blitz.
The choreography of his campaign so far has suggested a clear focus on a handful of outer suburban and regional seats — lower-income motorists with mortgages who voted no to the Voice, whom Dutton sees as his natural constituents.
Claiming a swathe of those seats could put him in a position to focus on middle suburbs the next time around.
But many of them are tough asks — Gorton and Hawke have 10 per cent and 8 per cent margins, respectively, raising the prospect that Dutton could produce sizeable swings and still fail.
That may be the reason for a final-week marginal seat “blitz” to many of the areas Dutton has visited less, including Reid, Chisholm and the teal seats.
His path to the lodge will require wins everywhere; Labor needs only to defend its turf, and polls have it well placed to do so with a few days left.
