Why winning a junior slam doesn’t guarantee stardom

After an eternity of waiting, tennis finally seems to be getting younger again.

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have left Novak Djokovic the last one standing of the “big three”, while the era headlined by the Williams sisters has given way to a new generation of star women.

After a generation of elder dominance, it seems like the tides are slowly turning back towards youth. This year’s Australian Open has seen a host of young players overcome more fancied opponents.

It’s the first time three teenagers have beaten top 10 opponents in a grand slam since the 2006 French Open, with João Fonseca, Learner Tien, and Jakub Menšík all showing their immense potential.

On the women’s side, Mirra Andreeva has continued her stellar 12 months, with the 17-year-old making the round of 16 before bowing out.

Australian fans have also had eyes towards the future during this summer of tennis.

Emerson Jones, the 16-year-old world junior number one, is still in the running to win the girls’ singles. Jones is the first Australian junior to finish the year as the number one ranked junior since Jelena Dokic in 1998.

Experts are tipping Jones for a bright future already.

Cruz Hewitt — son of former Australian world number one Lleyton — has also earned his fair share of media attention this summer as he battled through both the men’s and boys’ Australian Opens. He bowed out of both events early, but has racked up junior tournament wins over the last 12 months.

Despite the rise of the young stars, it isn’t always the top end of the junior ranks that dominate in the future.

Djokovic, Nadal and Federer combined for just one junior grand slam title — Federer’s 1998 victory at Wimbledon.

The three most successful women’s singles players — Serena Williams, Steffi Graf and Margaret Court — all failed to win a single junior grand slam title.

So how well does junior performance translate to the senior ranks?

It turns out it’s a bit complicated.

Slam to slam

The easiest way for most to track the best emerging talent is at the grand slams. As the main courts are dominated by the stars of today, the outer courts are filled with those with hopes of tomorrow.

These young players, usually in their teens, often play in front of sparse crowds. Those who hang around might just see an early sight of the future of the game. It just might not be a future Australian Open winner.

The last winner of the junior Australian Open to win the senior title was Victoria Azarenka. The Belarusian took out the girls’ singles in 2005 before winning the women’s title in 2012. For the men the wait is significantly longer. Stefan Edberg won the boys’ singles way back in 1983 before winning the men’s title in 1987.

The last male junior grand slam winner who won any senior major was Marin Čilić, who won the junior French Open in 2005. Čilić later won the US Open in 2014. Just five of the 183 male junior major winners have gone on to win an adult grand slam title since 1984.

The women’s game tends to translate junior grand slam success to the senior tournaments a bit more easily. Thirteen of the 133 junior slam winners since 1984 have gone on to win adult grand slams.

In 2018, both Coco Gauff and Iga Świątek won junior titles. Since then, both have established themselves at the top of the WTA tour.

Winning slams isn’t the only measure of success though. There are only a small number of majors each year, with critical points often the difference between a title and going home empty handed.

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Looking at the composition of the current top 20 paints a slightly different picture.

Four of the top 10 men’s players in the world have won junior grand slam titles, while three more players ranked 11 to 20 have racked up junior majors.

On the women’s side four of the current top 10 have won junior grand slams.

Some junior Grand Slam winners struggle to adapt to the speed and power of top tier tennis. For every Gauff or Federer, there are two or three tales of players battling for years through the lower ranks.

A more full view of the performance of juniors paints a better picture of how they adapt in the future.

Junior world rankings

Much like the ATP and WTA tours, the ITF (International Tennis Federation) pulls together junior rankings for those entering the grand slams and other prestigious junior tournaments around the world.

The list of year-ending junior number ones is littered with illustrious names, from Roger Federer to Ivan Lendl, Martina Hingis to Victoria Azarenka.

Some continue their junior success into the senior ranks, but many don’t.

Analysis conducted by ABC Sport indicates that only about a third of all elite junior men, and just under half of elite junior women, end up inside the top 100 in the world.

The top 100 is an important historical barrier — it has represented when a player can earn a living off tennis.

Those who sit a little bit higher in the junior rankings have better hopes for the future again.

This indicates there’s some truth to the fact that quality tends to emerge early — especially in women’s tennis.

But what about the players that don’t hit the top end of the junior rankings? Where do they come from, and how do they rise to the top?

All about the money

Unsurprisingly, junior tennis isn’t littered with the riches and rewards of the senior tour.

For many players the junior tour is a costly exercise, taking youngsters away from school and support networks in pursuit of a hard to obtain goal.

As a result, many young players (and their families) look for the best and quickest possible way to transition to playing on the main tours.

Take Cruz’s famous dad, Lleyton, as an example. Lleyton Hewitt was the youngest player in the open era to reach the number one ranking in the world at just 20-years-old.

The South Australian famously won the Adelaide International in 1998 aged just 16, announcing himself to the world.

That instantaneous success put a swift end to his career in the junior ranks.

The elder Hewitt never made it past the quarterfinals of a junior major across his five entries. His peak junior ranking was a relatively low 17.

That’s a similar story to Rafael Nadal, long considered a prodigy in his native Spain.

Nadal played only one junior grand slam, the 2002 Wimbledon tournament, where he made the semifinal at 16.

Although Nadal led Spain to victory in the junior Davis Cup, he quickly transitioned to the Challenger ranks — a step below the main tour.

Nadal also missed important junior tournaments in order to complete his schooling. All in all, Nadal peaked as the 145th best junior in the world, drastically underselling his abilities.

These stories are not uncommon. In the past, juniors have looked to move up as soon as they have shown the strength and stamina to do so.

That is backed up by the data from the junior rankings.

Generally, younger players finishing in the year-ending top 40 junior rankings have a higher likelihood of being a successful senior professional.

Those who hang around to their age 18 season have a lower likelihood of making the top end of the senior rankings.

And that’s true across both the men’s and women’s tours.

Young junior slam winners — such as former world number one Hingis — have more regularly followed their success into the senior ranks.

Hingis won her first junior grand slam at just 12-years-old. The Swiss star would win her first doubles major at 15 years old, and win her first singles grand slam and reach the top of the tennis world at just 16.

Hingis might represent a player at the extremes but is an example of how some young players enter the pro ranks.

Historically, players have tried to jump towards the senior ranks as early as possible to try to make a living off the game.

But that might be changing.

In recent years the major tennis organisations have tried to improve those pathways.

The transition pathways

As tennis has continued to grow globally, getting to the top of the game has become harder.

As a result, the global tennis organising bodies have been working on ways to best support juniors on their transition to the senior circuit.

The WTA and ATP have gradually increased the incentives to the top ranked juniors, including special entry rights to some events for top juniors and junior grand slam winners.

These special entry places have helped former top ranked juniors, like Fonseca, develop their games at the right pace while still marching towards the senior ranks.

It might also see more juniors hang around for a little longer in order to make their eventual journey to the top easier when the time comes.

The next generation will soon be here.

That is if the elder guard, like Djokovic, doesn’t stop them all first.