Why Melbourne’s inner north has Labor worried

For decades, Wills was considered Labor heartland. But now the seat that used to belong to one of Labor’s heroes — Bob Hawke — is squarely in the marginal column.

The electorate covering a chunk of Melbourne’s northern suburbs has long taken in Fawkner, Brunswick, Pascoe Vale and Coburg: areas fairly close to the city, with big migrant communities that — until about 10 years ago — have mostly been working class areas.

But recently its boundaries got a face lift from the Australian Electoral Commission and that’s spelling trouble for the government.

Wills moved down and moneyed up

A recent redistribution has brought parts of affluent Fitzroy and Princes Hill into the electorate and jettisoned less well-off places like sections of Glenroy and Oak Park.

But this area was changing long before any boundaries were re-drawn.

Over the last two decades, as increasing house prices have driven people further and further north, the area has gentrified at pace.

In 2002, Coburg — which sits around the middle of the electorate — was described in The Age as “just another unloved working-class suburb” at the “unfashionable end of the tram line.”

Now, the Pentridge prison, once the main jail for metro Melbourne, has become home to a Palace cinema, trendy restaurants and an “urban retreat”.

And some of Labor’s long-term supporters have been pushed out of the electorate because of increased housing costs.

This is an area the Greens have had their eyes on for over a decade, ever since the party managed to secure Adam Bandt’s seat of Melbourne next door.

But in all those years, they’ve never been able to cross the road.

Trying to get to the other side

Bisecting Coburg, and Wills itself, is Bell Street. Above it, to the north, Labor outpolled the Greens at every polling booth in 2022.

Below it, to the wealthier south, the Greens beat Labor at nine booths compared to the major party’s six.

It’s a line the Greens have been trying to crack for years, even coming close to winning the seat in 2016 before Liberal preferences helped the seat’s current MP Peter Khalil get it in the bag.

Now the seat redistribution has changed the game, replacing areas Labor won with ones dominated by the Greens.

Is the Bell St wall about to fall?

Samantha Ratnam is a seasoned Victorian political operator, but now she’s hoping to make the jump from state to federal politics.

A former leader of the Victorian Greens in state parliament, she says she’s been making sure she’s spending plenty of time in the north of the seat.

“We’re hearing from a lot of people in the north who feel especially neglected in what they considered were very safe Labor seats at one time.”

Pinned to her lapel is a small ceramic watermelon pin — symbolising her support for Palestine.

“People have been raising what’s been happening to the Palestinian people and what they see as a gross injustice and the moral issue of our time,” she says.

For many in Wills, it is one of the things that could decide their vote on May 3.

The area’s local council, Merri-Bek, flew the Palestinian flag outside town hall until earlier this year when a ceasefire — since broken by Israel — began.

That flag can be seen in many places at the packed pre-poll booth, on t-shirts, umbrellas and signs.

“They’ve been saying to us that they feel like Australia could have played a much stronger role on the international stage” she says of her discussions while campaigning. “They feel really betrayed and let down.”

Ms Ratnam says Australia’s response to the war has led to people changing their vote to the Greens for the first time.

“I’ve been hearing it daily, and we’ve been door-knocking now for months on end, and more and more people are telling me that it is a moral issue for them and they feel really let down by Labor.”

But while the response to the war is squarely part of the Greens’ policy platform this election, the party’s leader Adam Bandt says it won’t be on their list of non-negotiables if there’s a hung parliament.

“Our only non-negotiable is that we won’t support Peter Dutton,” he says.

“Whatever parliament it is, the Greens are going to keep pushing for our government to start taking action and put some pressure on this extremist Netanyahu government.”

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Party heavyweights make an appearance

When we speak with Mr Bandt, he’s joined Samantha Ratnam at pre-polling in Brunswick, along with NSW Senator Mehreen Faruqi, showing just how seriously the party are taking this contest.

But they’re not the only ones bringing their party heavyweights along to help them fight for this seat.

Local Labor member Peter Khalil has been joined by Finance Minister Katy Gallagher and Housing Minister Clare O’Neil as he fights to hold on to the electorate he’s represented for nearly 10 years.

“We don’t take anything for granted,” he says.

Aside from being the member for Wills, Mr Khalil is also the government’s special envoy for social cohesion.

The role involves him reporting regularly to the prime minister about issues regarding community division.

At the Brunswick Masonic Centre pre-polling booth, he mostly gets a warm reception.

“Everyone is voting early this year, so I’m kind of concerned about the sausage sizzle on Saturday and the fundraising for local primary schools.

“So hopefully people, even if they vote [early], can go down and buy a cake or a sausage for the local primary as well.”

He’s also facing political pressure from the group Muslim Votes Matter, whose website’s how to vote card for Wills puts Samantha Ratnam first, with Khalil placed sixth above the Liberals and One Nation.

Peter Khalil says the government is doing everything it can to work towards peace.

“Australia can’t move the dial on its own, but we have worked within the international community to vote for a ceasefire multiple times, we’ve increased humanitarian aid to over 100 million [dollars].

“We’ve actually doubled the funding to UNRWA, we’re also one of only three countries that have provided visas to thousands of Palestinian refugees.

“I’ve actually helped settle a number of Palestinian families into my electorate as well, and we’ve backed international humanitarian law.

“People can make all sorts of accusations, but the most important thing is representing your community, standing by integrity and principle and doing what I can do, and I have done for the community over this very difficult period [where] the loss of life has been horrific.”

Mr Khalil has been the subject of multiple protests regarding Labor’s response to the war, including one this week.

But things escalated last year when his office was sprayed outside with red paint and vandalised indoors with a substance the MP described as smelling like an “abattoir.”

He says while constituents are raising the issue with him, it is not their primary concern this election.

“People raise this issue or issues around the Middle East conflict with me, but people also raise cost of living, they also raise issues around housing, they also raise issues [around] other social policy issues, support for refugees and asylum seekers, they raise issues around local school funding.”

He disagrees with the Greens’ belief that constituents feel betrayed by Labor.

“[I’ve delivered a] Medicare urgent care clinic for the community that took a lot of work, that’s something that we can deliver as part of being a government, and it makes a difference to people’s lives.

“I’ve worked really hard for the community … it’s a wonderful community here in Melbourne, and every day is a privilege to work for them and serve the community.”