Within weeks months (if not weeks) Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will send voters to the polls for a federal election.
Earlier in his first term, gaining a second seemed likely but the combination of soaring inflation, a failed referendum and a war in the Middle East has made it much more complicated.
Albanese heads to the polls facing a frontline bigger than his Liberal predecessor Scott Morrison, with Labor candidates across the country facing serious threats from Liberals, Greens and independents.
The ABC has talked with party insiders and analysed polling data to assess the seats that will likely shape the election outcome.
But before we look at the seats, there’s a more pressing question.
When will the election be?
It’s a mug’s game to claim to know when the election will be held, largely because picking the date is on of a prime minister’s few unilateral powers.
Not that it stops us from guessing.
The one thing we know for sure is it will be a Saturday and no later than May 17. We also know the minimum number of days for a campaign is 33 days and the maximum is 58 days (and good luck finding someone who things a two month official campaign is a good idea).
Between now and then are a couple of complexities, namely the Western Australia state election (March 8), Easter (April 18 to 21) and Anzac Day (April 25).
Conventional wisdom suggests the PM is likely to call an election after WA’s state poll. Calling it weeks after that would mean the government would hand down the early budget it has slated for March 25 but there are differing opinions on the political value of a pre-election budget.
Assuming there’s no early budget, it leaves one date, something of a goldilocks period, that squeezes in between WA and the April public holidays and is considered most likely among politicians and political observers —Saturday, April 12.
Assuming the PM gives the victor of the WA election one day to celebrate, it would mean he’d set off to visit Governor-General Sam Mostyn on Monday, March 10 (awkwardly a public holiday in four jurisdictions) seeking an election, with the writs issued that very day.
If the PM presses on with a budget, he’s left with just three options all of which would be interrupted by Easter and Anzac Day — May 3, May 10 and May 17.
Where will the election be decided?
By-elections, defections and redistributions in three states have the parties notionally holding different seats from the last election.
Using Antony Green’s revised electoral pendulum, Labor enters the contest holding 78 seats, which includes the new WA seat of Bullwinkel and the currently Liberal-held Victorian seat of Menzies.
The Coalition has 57 seats, which includes the currently Labor-held NSW seat of Bennelong and two formerly held Coalition seats prior to defections to the crossbench.
The Greens, minor parties and independents hold 15 seats.
With 150 seats in the next parliament, 76 seats represents a majority, meaning Labor can only lose two seats to continue governing in its own right.
For the Coalition to get to a majority, it needs to win 19 seats.
Former Victorian Liberal director turned pollster Tony Barry told the ABC he thinks the Coalition on “a sunny day” (ie best-case scenario) could win seven seats in Tasmania, Queensland, WA, SA and the NT.
The Coalition would still needing another 12 seats to reach a majority, leaving Victoria and NSW as the states with the most at play this election.
Victoria
Political observers estimate the opposition will need around half a dozen gains in Victoria if it wants to govern in majority.
The state has become something of hostile territory to federal Liberals, with Labor reaching a high-water mark at the last election.
Melbourne’s outer eastern and northern suburbs might not be Labor’s most marginal seats but they’re among the most vulnerable, with living costs savaging household budgets.
Few on either side of politics expect Labor to hold Aston (3.6 per cent), which the party defied history and won at a by-election in 2023.
After losing neighbouring Chisholm (3.3 per cent) in 2022, the Liberals are optimistic of reclaiming it and will also target the coastal electorate of Dunkley (6.8 per cent) and the inland Holt (7.1 per cent) and Bruce (5.3 per cent), the latter two of which Labor has held for decades.
The Liberals have long hoped to win back McEwen, which stretches from Melbourne’s outer north towards central Victoria. The seat is vulnerable for Labor incumbent Rob Mitchell thanks to dissatisfaction with the state Labor government and inflation. The Coalition too is eyeing neighbouring Hawke (7.6 per cent). If Labor loses a seat like Hawke, it will have much bigger problems on its hands.
The Coalition is also talking up its chances of winning back Victoria’s two teal seats Goldstein (3.3 per cent) and Kooyong (2.2 per cent). But Liberal frontbencher Dan Tehan could have a battle in his once safe regional seat of Wannon. He will again face teal candidate, and former Triple J presenter, Alex Dyson.
Labor too isn’t without possible gains in Victoria. Having notionally been gifted Menzies (0.4 per cent) in a redistribution, its best chances of winning Liberal seats are in outer north-east Melbourne electorates of Deakin (0.02 per cent) and Casey (1.4 per cent).
Highlighting Labor’s electoral woes in Victoria, the party will face serious threats from the Greens in the inner-north Melbourne electorate of Wills (4.6 per cent) and the inner south seat of Macnamara. The latter will again be a hotly contested three-corner contest where the flow of preferences will likely determine the outcome. Post-redistribution, Labor’s margin against the Greens is just 0.4 per cent and 12.2 per cent against the Liberals.
New South Wales
Australia’s most populated state presents a mixed bag of electoral fortunes, but like Victoria, offers few fortunes for Labor.
Sydney’s mortgage belt was once home to some of Labor’s safest seats. Add in the Middle East conflict and Labor is facing a series of issues across the west and south-west.
Labor faces an inflation ring of pain that stretches from inner west Sydney in Reid (5.2 per cent), through Parramatta (3.7 per cent), to cabinet minister Michelle Rowland’s western electorate of Greenway (7.9 per cent) and out to Macquarie (6.3 per cent), which takes in the Blue Mountains. Werriwa (5.3 per cent) and Macarthur (9.8 per cent) could also face threats.
The central coast seats of Robertson (2.2 per cent) and Dobell (6.6 per cent), and south coast seat Gilmore (0.2 per cent) are high on the Liberal hit list.
The NSW Hunter region too is presenting problems for Labor. Newcastle is Labor’s safest seat in the country (17.9 per cent) yet the three Labor seats around it are anything but.
The Coalition is optimistic of winning Paterson (2.6 per cent) and Hunter (4.8 per cent) and is eyeing nearby Shortland (6.0 per cent), which is home to cabinet minister Pat Controy.
Further north and the Greens are talking up their chances of winning Richmond (8.2 per cent), which sits alongside the Queensland border.
Changing demographics in the coastal electorate, which is home to Byron Bay, have changed the electoral fortunes of a once conservative heartland seat. Labor’s margin against the Greens in Richmond is now just 1.3 per cent.
The Coalition is facing threats in at least three of its seats. Nat turned independent Andrew Gee will face his former party in Calare, having defected from the party due to its opposition to the Voice referendum.
The community independents who ran in 2022 in regional Cowper (2.4 per cent) and urban Bradfield (2.5 per cent) will again contest the seats. Teal Nicolette Boele’s chances in Bradfield have likely benefited from Paul Fletcher’s looming retirement.
Neighbouring Bennelong, once held by John Howard and now Labor’s Jerome Laxale, became a notional Liberal seat (0.04 per cent) in a NSW redistribution.
It was largely the Coalition that faced the community independent campaigns that delivered teals to the federal parliament in 2022. But this time, Labor too will face a similar movement, particularly in western Sydney, where dissatisfaction has festered following Labor’s response to the war in Gaza.
Among the candidates is Dr Ziad Basyouny, who is running against Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke in Watson (15.2 per cent). Around one in three voters in Watson and Education Minister Jason Clare’s neighbouring Blaxland (13 per cent) are Muslim.
Tasmania
Tasmania could be a surprise battleground this campaign.
Independent Andrew Wilkie, sitting on one of the nation’s safest margins in his Hobart electorate of Clarke (20.8 per cent), is likely the only seat without much of a challenge.
Both Labor and the Coalition see the potential for gains on the apple isle.
Liberal Bridget Archer has repeatedly shown her ability to win on tight margins in Bass. She initially won the seat with a margin of just 0.4 per cent. At the last election, she did what many Liberals couldn’t and grew her margin.
Some of her biggest battles have come from within the party, where she’s no stranger to speaking out and voting against Liberal positions. Having overcame an internal effort to oust her, she will need to defend her 1.4 per cent margin against Labor to stay in office.
In neighbouring Braddon, incumbent Liberal Gavin Pearce will retire at the election. The opposition holds the seat with an 8 per cent margin but senator Anne Urquhart is giving up her seat in the Upper House to contest the seat for Labor.
She’s not the only politician changing seats. Former state Labor leader Rebecca White is seeking to defend Lyons, where incumbent Brian Mitchell is retiring for her to contest his seat. The margin is 0.9 per cent and is high on the Liberal’s targets this election.
Agriculture Minister Julie Collins is one of two Labor MPs currently being targeted by teal independents. She currently holds Franklin with a 13.7 per cent margin.
Western Australia
Anthony Albanese can thank WA for his majority.
The teal victories in once safe Liberal seats knocked the Coalition from power. Winning a swag of seats in the west meant Albanese’s Labor could govern in their own right.
Labor unexpectedly benefited from an independent redistribution, which saw the creation of the new seat of Bullwinkel.
Notionally a Labor seat, with a 3.3 per cent margin, the new outer eastern Perth electorate will host a high-profile three-cornered contest, including a former state opposition leader for the Nationals and a former Malcolm Turnbull spin doctor for the Liberals.
A senior Labor figure conceded the party couldn’t believe its luck in the redistribution, arguing they would have been laughed out of town if they’d proposed the new maps (such was their favourability for the ALP).
Dolphin trainer turned first-term MP Sam Lim looks to have the biggest fight for Labor in his seat of Tagney, the party’s most marginal seat in the west (2.8 per cent).
Teal MP Kate Chaney is facing the biggest threat on the crossbench as the Liberals seek to win back Julie Bishop’s previously safe seat Curtin (1.3 per cent).
The Liberals too have woes in the west, having not re-endorsed long-term MP Ian Goodenough in Moore (0.9 per cent). The incumbent will contest the seat as an independent.
Queensland
Queensland’s most senior federal figure, Treasurer Jim Chalmers, has long been vocal about his party’s poor track record in the sunshine state.
In the last decade, the party has been unable to replicate its state dominance into federal seats.
So much so that Labor has just five of Queensland’s 26 seats.
With little to gain from Labor, the Coalition is eyeing off two Greens seats, having previously held both.
Former MP Trevor Evans will seek to win Brisbane back from Green Stephen Bates (3.7 per cent). The Liberals too hope to win back neighbouring Ryan from Green Elizabeth Watson-Brown (2.6 per cent). Labor too hopes it can win both seats in what will be three-cornered contests.
Labor insiders fear the retirement of Graham Perrett from neighbouring Moreton could make that seat the party’s most vulnerable in Queensland.
Those same insiders say Labor has for too many elections tried to spread resources across too many Queensland electorates, only to fall short in all of them.
They think the far north seat of Leichhardt (3.4 per cent) is among its best pick up chances, with high-profile Liberal Warren Entsch retiring.
South Australia
The once safe-Liberal seat of Sturt looks set to attract the most attention at the election.
Held by second-term Liberal James Stevens on a margin of 0.5 per cent, Sturt is among the most marginal opposition seats.
Held for decades by Christopher Pyne, both Labor and the Greens are vying to snatch the seat from the Liberals but could be among the government’s best chances to win a seat from the opposition.
After prizing Boothby from the Liberals in 2022, former MP Nicolle Flint (who didn’t contest the seat last time) is seeking to win it back for the Liberals but will have to overcome a 3.3 per cent margin.
Territories
Labor currently holds all five lower house seats in the ACT and NT.
First-term MP Marion Scrymgour has the toughest battle ahead as she seeks to defend the geographically massive Lingiari, which takes in all of the NT except Darwin and surrounds.
The margin is just 1.7 per cent. If the Country Liberals can turn territory election success into federal success, it would be the first time the party has held Lingiari.
In the ACT, the race for one of the territory’s two Senate seats looks to be the main battle.
Independent David Pocock won his seat from Liberal frontbencher Zed Seselja. The Liberal campaign to win back the seat hit a snag, when it emerged its lead candidate faces disendorsement amid claims of branch stacking.
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