There is a startling new figure that will make Anthony Albanese and his Labor team very nervous going into this pre-election season.
A survey of voters to be released by the Australian National University (ANU) today shows Australians are increasingly pessimistic about the future with declining trust in government and institutions.
What’s most confounding is the level of romanticisation of what life was like 50 years ago. Voters long for the past. It makes for worrying reading.
The starkest statistic reveals something deeply bleak about where Australians are at. Life satisfaction in January, when the survey was done, dropped to its lowest level since COVID-19 lockdowns, with mean satisfaction falling to 6.45 out of 10 — a statistically significant decline from 6.78 in early 2023 and 7.05 prior to the Black Summer Bushfires and COVID-19 pandemic.
ANU’s Nicholas Biddle says he was staggered when he saw the life satisfaction figure.
“We know that many Australians are finding it tough at the moment. However, I did not expect to see Australians reporting such low levels of life satisfaction,” Professor Biddle tells the ABC.
“What’s more, life satisfaction is low across the entire working age population, with only those 65 years and over maintaining relatively high satisfaction.”
Financial stress remains high, with 33.1 per cent of Australians finding it difficult or very difficult to meet household expenses on their current income, a rise from 29.9 per cent in October 2024.
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Few bright spots
In a febrile political environment where events outside of the government’s control seem to be shaping the political narrative — from the cyclone to international events — there are some green shoots for Labor.
The survey shows there have been some small improvements in financial stress measures in the past 12 months. Australians have undertaken slightly fewer negative financial actions, and fewer Australians think that rising prices are a very big problem. Those two measures are still higher, however, than prior to the inflationary period that followed the COVID-19 pandemic.
Using data from a nationally representative sample of more than 3,500 Australians, the ANU study explores satisfaction with democracy, trust in institutions, political attitudes, and voting intentions ahead of next year’s federal election.
But the survey shows the negativity and pessimism voters are expressing is palpable.
Australians are becoming increasingly pessimistic about both their personal circumstances and the broader future of the country.
Only 21.7 per cent believe their life has improved in the past year, while 31 per cent believe it has worsened — the worst outlook recorded since early COVID-19 lockdowns.
And short-term future expectations have declined: 29 per cent believe their life will improve in the next year, down from 46.6 per cent in January 2021. The proportion expecting their life to worsen (26.7 per cent) has steadily increased each year since 2021.
And the long-term national outlook is overwhelmingly negative: 50.3 per cent of Australians believe life will be worse in 50 years, while only 16.3 per cent believe it will improve.
And nostalgia for the past is widespread: 51.8 per cent believe life was better 50 years ago, despite major improvements in life expectancy, real income, and education levels.
According to Biddle, the fact that most Australians think life was better 50 years ago when life expectancy was a decade lower and income about half of what it is now is very alarming.
“The big concern is that such nostalgia puts at risk many of the social gains that Australia has achieved over the past half-century.“
Trust in core institutions continues to decline with confidence in the federal government at its lowest point since the Black Summer Bushfires in January 2020. And public confidence in the public service remains higher than confidence in elected officials, but it too has declined since 2023.
Professor Biddle says public trust is declining despite strong economic indicators. While inflation has dropped to 2.4 per cent and unemployment remains at 4 per cent, the public does not perceive economic stability, which is eroding trust in government.
“Housing affordability, financial stress, and a belief that Australia is not doing enough on the environment are central concerns that are strongly associated with more pessimistic reflections about the past and future,” he says.
Politics continues
Anthony Albanese’s decision to delay the election was the right thing to do, but like all political decisions, it comes with risks.
The idea that Australians knee-deep in floodwater would be subjected to a political campaign when all they want is the government to be focusing on them was always ludicrous.
It would have been politically suicidal for the prime minister to have gone ahead with a campaign this weekend. But with public sentiment already low in January, you do wonder how much lower it could go at a time of great anxiety internationally too.
All the headline economic data is the best the government has had in a long time. Economic growth is up, unemployment remains low, and they got their long-dreamt-of interest rate cut.
But as the cyclone demonstrated, things change at rapid speed. Another month in a world that is being radically reshaped is equally dangerous.
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Booby traps
Governing comes with built-in challenges. Last Tuesday, for instance, an agreement with David Pocock was made directly with the PM (at the Lodge) and was part of securing his support for passing the first tranche of the industrial relations reforms.
It required the government to legislate an independent Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee made up of experts (chaired by former social services minister Jenny Macklin).
The committee is charged with providing independent advice to the treasurer and social security minister before every federal budget on economic inclusion and tackling disadvantage.
While not binding, its reports have consistently recommended increases to minimum safety net payments like Jobseeker and Commonwealth Rent Assistance.
Included in the legislation establishing the committee is a transparency safeguard requiring the government by law to publish the committee’s report at least 14 days before the federal budget is handed down in the House of Representatives.
If you do the maths, that means Tuesday.
Add to that the Trump decision on whether to exempt Australia from tariffs on steel and aluminium and you can see that governing is always harder than it looks.
Patricia Karvelas is presenter of ABC TV’s Q+A, host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel, co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly, and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.
