At federal elections, the only person who controls your preferences is you.
But political parties will still try to influence how you number the boxes that decide who gets your vote if first pick doesn’t get enough support.
They do that through how-to-vote cards. Handed out at polling booths and available online, most of the major players at this election are asking voters to direct their preferences a certain way.
ABC NEWS Verify has collected how-to-vote cards for the House of Representatives from the Labor Party, Liberal Party, Nationals, Greens, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots websites.
And a bird’s eye view offers insights into who these parties want to see elected — in the event it’s not them — providing an insight into who they’re aligned with, and who they might work with in the next parliament.
It also reveals some strange political bedfellows that could otherwise be easily missed.
Labor and the Greens
The Greens have made no secret of their desire to work with Labor in a minority government in the event of a hung parliament, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has made a point of distancing himself from governing with the party that sits to his left.
So does that mean the Greens put Labor second after them, and Labor in turn preferences the Greens lower?
This graph shows it’s actually the opposite.
While independent candidates supported by Climate 200 are often recommended second by both parties, these candidates aren’t repaying the favour. In fact, many don’t recommend preferences at all.
Climate 200 is a funding vehicle for climate focused independents which aided several of them winning inner-city seats in 2022.
The Coalition and One Nation
Like Labor and the Greens, the Coalition and One Nation are putting each other ahead of the other two largest parties.
But they’re not as kind to each other as the Greens and Labor are, often preferencing right-wing minor parties such as Family First and the Libertarian Party higher.
The one thing they generally do have in common is who to put last. That’s the Greens.
One Nation is even closer with the smaller Coalition partner, the Nationals.
The Nationals put One Nation second in every seat they are contesting bar those where the Liberals are also running a candidate.
One Nation is also preferencing the Nationals above the Liberal Party in most seats where both parties are running a candidate.
A spokesman for One Nation told ABC NEWS Verify that the party had a “handshake agreement” with the Nationals “as the party is closer to One Nation on rural and regional policy matters”.
A spokesperson for the Nationals agreed a “handshake” deal was made, “to ensure the best chance of getting rid of Labor”.
Strange ballot fellows
Among the broad patterns in the parties’ how-to-vote cards are seats that buck the trend and reveal some strange partnerships, whether intended or not.
Earlier this month, a scandal erupted within the Trumpet of Patriots over the party’s preferencing strategy, which the party said would see the sitting MP, or in some cases, the party that notionally holds the seat due to redistribution, last.
This led to some Climate 200-supported candidates being preferenced above the Liberals, which was too much for the Trumpet’s pick for the seat of Flinders, who decided to quit.
Trumpet of Patriots chair Clive Palmer claimed the ballots had been somehow tampered with. But even after a raft of them were amended by the party, some Climate 200 candidates are still advantaged over the Liberals.
A spokesman for the Trumpet of Patriots said the party had been “clear” that its policy was to put the sitting party last in every seat, without explaining why this didn’t apply to the recently amended card for the WA seat of Moore.
In the seat of Reid, both the Liberals and One Nation would prefer that Steven Commerford, a non-Climate 200 independent who has expressed support for net zero and the Paris agreement, be elected ahead of Labor’s Sally Sitou, the incumbent.
The One Nation spokesman said it was not aware of Mr Commerford’s views, and would endeavour to change its recommendations for Reid.
The Liberals are recommending Climate 200 independent Kate Hulett at third position above Labor at fourth in the WA seat of Fremantle, increasing her chances of beating the major party there.
In the seat of Calare, Labor would prefer incumbent National-turned-independent Andrew Gee win above the local Climate 200 candidate and the Greens. Mr Gee has name recognition in the seat and may therefore have the best chance of winning against his former party.
Similarly, Labor has preferenced independent Dai Le, who took the seat of Fowler from the party in 2022, above the Liberals.
And speaking of Labor, you may have noticed this anomaly as you scrolled down the party’s graph.
Labor is not recommending preferences in this Victorian seat with a high Jewish population, leaving voters to make up their own mind on where to preference the Greens.
The Greens have put pro-Palestine Muslim candidates above Labor in seats where sitting Labor MPs face a challenge, reportedly in response to this.
Meanwhile, the Liberals are recommending those candidates behind Labor, which would make it more difficult for those candidates to win.
A spokesperson for the Greens did not respond directly to a question about whether the party was retaliating against Labor in Watson and Blaxland. They said decisions on preferences were made by the party, party branch and “local groups” and that “there are no deals or arrangements with Labor, Muslim independents or Climate 200”.
The Labor Party and the Liberal Party did not respond to requests for comment before publication.
Wondering if there are any strange ballot fellows running in your seat? Enter your address here and take a look for yourself.
Do how-to-vote cards matter?
As ABC Elections Analyst Antony Green has previously estimated, around 40 per cent of voters follow the how-to-vote cards handed out by the major parties.
For the minors like One Nation and the Greens, that figure is even lower because they have fewer resources to distribute the cards at polling booths.
But in some seats with small margins it may matter. And preference swaps don’t need to be restricted to the House of Representatives.
In the Victorian division of Wills, for example, Labor is preferencing the Legalise Cannabis Party ahead of the Greens in both the House and the Senate, with the micro party doing the same for Labor in the House.
This benefits Labor in the lower house because the Greens will be its likely challenger in a seat which has had its margin cut to 4.6 per cent by a redistribution.
And Legalise Cannabis benefits in the upper house where it has a far greater chance of being elected than in the lower house due to proportional voting.
Neither Labor nor the Legalise Cannabis Party responded to questions from ABC NEWS Verify about whether a deal was made.
It’s all part of the strange world of federal preferences.
Check out the graphs below where you can compare different parties. Maybe you’ll spot something we didn’t?
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