Internal polling shows female voters ‘coming back’ to Coalition

Female voters are “coming back” to the Coalition, according to internal Liberal Party polling, with some MPs quietly hopeful leader Peter Dutton is more accepted by women than his predecessor Scott Morrison.

As the major parties shift into election campaign mode, some Liberal MPs have told the ABC they believe the gender issues that drove away female voters in 2022, such as allegations of sexual assault in Parliament House, are no longer a major talking point amongst the public.

But the Coalition is working off a low base, after women gave the party its lowest level of support ever in 2022, at just 32 per cent.

Female Liberal MPs the ABC has spoken to said while they regularly received criticism about Mr Morrison during the 2022 campaign, they do not receive as many queries about Mr Dutton.

Liberal MP for the Sydney seat of Hughes, Jenny Ware, said she believed Mr Dutton was more palatable to women than the former prime minister.

“That has been my experience campaigning now, as opposed to campaigning three years ago,” she said.

“A lot of the professional women did desert us at the last election, they are definitely coming back.”

The Liberal Party points to internal polling, done by Freshwater Strategy, which shows a jump in the female primary vote for the Coalition, from 34 per cent in December 2022, which was after the election, to 42 per cent in 2025.

An age breakdown of the results, seen by the ABC, shows increases in the female vote in every age category, with the largest jump in support from women aged 18-34.

On a two-party preferred basis, the Freshwater polling suggests 52 per cent of women would prefer the Coalition in 2025.

But Labor still remains the favoured major party with female voters in other polls, published by Essential and Resolve in recent months.

A senior Labor source told the ABC its own internal research does not indicate Mr Dutton will win over women.

“Peter Dutton is as unpopular with Australian woman as Scott Morrison was,” the source said.

One of the party’s most prominent women, Shadow Finance Minister Senator Jane Hume, told the ABC Mr Dutton had shown “great leadership” on women’s issues, “particularly in his strong advocacy for women’s safety, and domestic and sexual violence”.

The Liberal Party website said its policy for women’s safety was to extend emergency payments to support women and children fleeing domestic violence.

The Coalition has also been criticised by the government for proposing Commonwealth public servants no longer work from home, unless in special circumstances, a position Minister for Women Katy Gallagher said disadvantaged women and families.

Labor has pitched more heavily to female voters during this term, extending paid parental leave, scrapping the activity test for families seeking childcare subsidies, and a $500 million women’s health package announced in February, which Mr Dutton said he would support.

Election defeat review finds internal ‘woman problem’

The Morrison government dealt with scandals around the treatment of women within Parliament House, including former staffer Brittney Higgins’ sexual assault allegation, which sparked a series of protests around the country.

Following the 2022 defeat, Senator Hume co-wrote a review of the result, which found the Liberal Party was “failing to adequately represent the values and priorities of women in modern Australia,” and a lack of confidence that women within the party would be encouraged into leadership roles.

Nationals leader, then deputy leader, David Littleproud said last year that by 2021, “women had lost faith” in the Coalition.

Ms Ware said the professional women in her electorate who abandoned the party last election were not as focused on the issue this time around.

“There is one issue in this election, and that’s cost of living,” she said.

“[Peter Dutton] has not had to deal with those sorts of issues.”

Majority male candidates in winnable seats

But one Liberal MP, who wanted to remain anonymous, told the ABC she was unconvinced the party had changed since 2022, and said proof of that would be more women being pre-selected into winnable seats.

“It’s not clear what’s changed,” she said.

“Show me the evidence.

“How are we demonstrating how we’re more supportive of women?”

Liberal sources have pointed to the seat of Monash, where Liberal candidate Mary Aldred will run against Liberal turned-independent Russell Broadbent, as a woman being placed into a winnable seat.

But six men have been chosen to run for other seats being left vacant by retiring Liberal MPs.

Senator Hume’s review recommended a 50 per cent target of female representation in both parliamentary ranks and the Liberal executive by 2032 — a target the party is likely to pursue without using quotas.

Senator Hume has previously described quotas as a “top-down measure” which the “grassroots” membership base would not support.