‘High energy, high risk’: Tories already wonder if Kemi Badenoch will last until the next election | Katy Balls

One of the regular refrains from Keir Starmer’s team during their wilderness years was that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. So, there is an argument for the opposition to not rock the boat unless it really has to. Four months into this Labour government, some in the Tory party have started to think such tactics might work for them: sit quietly and hope Starmer self-destructs.

However, the election of Kemi Badenoch on Saturday changed that. MPs and members picked a leader who is not known for restraint. Instead, the Tory firebrand has won fans and critics in equal measure for her straight-talking approach that has seen her accused of being able to start a fight in an empty room.

Now installed as leader of the opposition, the hope is that Badenoch can pick the right fights to get the Conservative party back into power. That means causing problems for Starmer to the left of her and Nigel Farage on the right. “There will be no Ming vase strategy,” says a close supporter, ruling out a campaign run on caution. “It will be a ‘run fast and try to change things’ strategy. Kemi is a high-energy, high-risk, high-reward leader.”

In picking Badenoch, the Tories have ultimately decided that boldness is required. Sunday showed a sign of what is to come when Badenoch sat down with Laura Kuenssberg. The new Tory leader said she opposed Labour’s private school VAT crackdown, played down aspects of Partygate, and criticised Rachel Reeves for going on about being the first female chancellor. “It seemed to be a template of what’s going to be the next year: newsmaking, chaotic, engaging,” says a party source.

That approach has won over the membership – what about the party and public? While Badenoch had the highest number of MP backers in the final parliamentary round by one vote, it’s notable that no candidate managed much more than a third of MP support in the party. The last time that happened was 2001 – and it didn’t exactly end well for the victor, Iain Duncan Smith, who was forced out in a confidence vote two years later.

This time around, steps have been taken to minimise the chance of drama. The 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers has raised the threshold for the number of no-confidence letters required to trigger a confidence vote to a third of the parliamentary party. Yet Badenoch still needs to tread with caution. While most MPs are talking publicly about the need to unite, there is already discussion over whether she will make it to the election.

The former chancellor George Osborne has suggested that Rishi Sunak could enjoy a renaissance on the backbench and return to lead the party at the next election – although “George has said it so that means it won’t happen,” according to one Tory aide. Privately, MPs wonder whether James Cleverly – who was knocked out in the final MP round – could steal the crown in the future. His decision to stay on the backbenches rather than join Badenoch’s shadow cabinet will add to the sense that there is a prince across the water ready to move if things don’t go to plan.

Badenoch is under pressure to form a cabinet that represents the different parts of the party. Her first appointments have been chief whip – Rebecca Harris – and two loyal foot soldiers in Dominic Johnson and Nigel Huddleston as co-party chairs. In the wider reshuffle, she has brought in two former leadership rivals – Mel Stride as shadow chancellor and Priti Patel as shadow foreign secretary – following calls for her to reach out beyond her close cabal of fellow 2017 intake MPs.

Ahead of the reshuffle, an old hand said what she offered the other leadership contenders would be an indicator of her direction. So far she has ticked the rivals box but appointed those who pose the least threat – they were knocked out first. A key move is what she offers Robert Jenrick; there was little love between the two camps by the end of the process.

The next challenge is going to be on message. Already Labour is trying to force a political choice on Badenoch with regard to the budget. Asking if she rejects the employer national insurance rise, and if so, how would she give the NHS a £22bn injection? Or would she simply not? Labour aides are having a field day trawling through her past comments.

But when it comes to new policy, they could be left waiting. The new Tory leader wants to take time. This is one area where she is happy to learn from Starmer. His team were often criticised for failing to offer up policy – but it didn’t harm him in the long term. It means the early part of her leadership will be defined as much by her personality and philosophy. She has spoken of her admiration for Roger Scruton, the late philosopher, as well as Thomas Sowell, the US economist.

Her general diagnosis is that her party’s failures have been driven by timidness – a slow slide into managerialism, as the Tories have lost confidence in their principles. Badenoch’s antidote to this is to respond with authenticity, even if that means standing by views that challenge the status quo. It’s an approach that could win back disillusioned Tory voters, but it could also provide plenty of fodder for her critics.

Even her supporters are aware that it is a high-stakes gamble. “If she pulls it off it’s going to be fantastic,” says a member of the shadow cabinet. “But the risk is high.”