If you’re reading this article, there’s a good chance you’re using Chrome.
That’s because two-thirds of the world’s web browsing is done on the Google application.
It’s not just popular among users, but also an important part of Google’s advertising business.
But in the past week, it’s been floated that Alphabet may be forced to sell Chrome.
Here’s a look at what that could mean for the company, and the world wide web.
Who wants Google to sell off Chrome, and why?
Google and other tech giants’ dominance of the internet and search has been under the microscope of American authorities in recent years.
In August this year, a judge ruled Alphabet had a monopoly over online search and related ads.
District Judge Amit Mehta agreed with the US Department of Justice (DOJ) that Google broke the law by paying $41 billion to ensure it was the default search engine on smartphones and browsers.
US Attorney-General Merrick Garland has hailed a previous ruling against Google as a “historic win for the American people”. (AP: Jose Luis Magana)
This week, the DOJ has asked the same judge to force Google to sell Chrome due to its market dominance.
They say the company should also share data and search results with rival browsers like Edge, Firefox or Safari.
The DOJ’s court filing accuses Google of “unlawful behaviour” by trying to prevent rivals from being able to get a foothold in the market.
How could a sale happen?
Like many countries, the United States has “anti-trust” laws, which allow the government to break up monopolies and large corporations through the court.
Google has paid companies like Apple billions to ensure its search is the default on their devices. (Reuters: Dado Ruvic)
If Judge Mehta rules in favour of all of the DOJ’s demands, it would mean:
- Google would be forced to sell Chrome
- It would be banned from releasing a new web browser for five years
- If competition doesn’t improve, Google would have to sell its Android operating system for smartphones
- Google would be banned from paying billions of dollars to companies like Apple to make itself the default search engine on their devices
This is unlikely to happen overnight, as experts say Google has the option to appeal any rulings.
What are the chances Chrome will be sold?
This is where it gets complicated.
While the outgoing Biden administration has taken an increasingly aggressive stance towards breaking up Big Tech, the incoming Trump administration’s stance is less clear.
Donald Trump is likely to treat Big Tech differently compared to his predecessor. (Reuters: Kevin Lamarque)
Whoever is Donald Trump’s pick for attorney-general will take over the DOJ in January, and then will decide whether to press ahead or pull back.
Experts also say it’s unlikely Judge Mehta will agree with all of the DOJ’s demands.
CFRA analyst Angelo Zino considers the DOJ’s proposed measures “extreme and unlikely to be imposed by the court.”
If Google is eventually forced to sell Chrome, then there’s the issue of finding a buyer.
Bloomberg analysis estimates that Chrome is used by three billion people globally, and would be worth $US15 billion ($23 billion).
Emarketer senior analyst Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf says there are very few suitable buyers for such an asset.
“It’s likely that any company with deep enough pockets to afford Chrome is already under antitrust scrutiny,” he says.
“If I had to speculate, my inclination is to look at US-based artificial intelligence players.”
What would that mean for Google?
But Megan Gray, who worked as an attorney at the US Federal Trade Commission, says the impact to Google — and its lucrative ad business — could be more significant.
“The reason why it’s valuable to Google is because Google uses it to enhance its ad business and its search business,” she says.
Google could also be forced to sell off its Android operating system. (Reuters: Marko Djurica)
Syracuse University professor of advertising Beth Egan says losing Chrome would force Google to dramatically shift its business model.
At the moment, the company relies on Chrome data as a source of information used to promote Google’s other services to users, and to train its algorithms.
But Ms Egan adds that while Google would have to adapt, she doesn’t think “divesting the browser is going to kill Google as a company”.
What would that mean for the internet at large?
The DOJ argues a forced sale of Chrome would inject more innovation and competition into the web browser market.
But in a blog post on Google’s website, Alphabet’s regulatory affairs vice-president Lee-Anne Mulholland says selling Chrome, and Android, “would break them”.
“Few companies would have the ability or incentive to keep them open source, or to invest in them at the same level we do,” she says.
She also argues forcing Chrome to share its data with rivals could risk the privacy of users.
Mr Mitchell-Wolf says Chrome would remain popular even after a sale, but only if the buyer continues to invest in it.
“This assumes Chrome retains its most popular features and continues innovating,” he says.
“Search behaviours are a function of convenience first, trust and experience second.”
ABC/AFP/Reuters
