Western cuts to foreign aid budgets may trigger more than 10 million additional HIV infections by the end of the decade, new research has found.
A paper published in the Lancet HIV has predicted there could be up to 2.9 million more HIV-related deaths globally by 2030, due to a reduction in international development funds.
The grim warning comes after Keir Starmer announced last month that the UK was slashing its foreign aid budget from 0.5% to 0.3% of national income to fund a hike in defence spending.
The Trump administration has also frozen US aid and put the flagship PEPFAR (President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief) programme under review in a bid to cut back on the federal budget.
France, Germany and the Netherlands have cut their foreign aid budget in recent years, too.
The five countries account for 90% of all international HIV funding.
The paper, authored by academics at Australia’s Burnet Institute, predicted that the number of new HIV infections could return to 2010 levels by next year in the worst-case scenario.
Such a rise would break the last record for annual new infections of 3.3 million, which occurred in 1995.
Across all low and middle-income countries, the researchers predicted there could be an additional 10.75 million infections between 2025 and 2030 – and an extra 2.93 million HIV-related deaths.
If the paper’s forecast is accurate, it would mark a huge step backwards after 25 years of medical progress on the deadly virus.
Over the past 15 years, there has been a fall of 8.3% in new HIV infections across the world.
Campaigners accused Starmer of “hollow” words after he became the first sitting PM to take a public HIV test in February and promised no new transmissions of HIV in England by 2030.
Adrian Lovett, the UK executive director of the ONE campaign, which is a non-profit advocating for governments to end extreme poverty and preventable diseases, warned that this decision could come with a “terrible human cost”.
He said: “Powerful nations look to Britain for leadership on international aid.
“By ruthlessly slashing our aid budget, the prime minister risks unleashing a contagion of cuts across the Western world, with the terrible human cost multiplied many times over.”
He urged the government to “rethink this devastating 40% cut”, noting: “Infectious diseases don’t stop at national borders.
“The prime minister says the right things about fighting HIV/AIDS – but these cuts make his words sound hollow.”
Anne Aslett, CEO of the Elton John AIDS foundation, noted that this report “demonstrates the critical and urgent need for donors to recognise the cumulative impact of their decisions to cut aid budgets”.
She said: “With groundbreaking new HIV prevention medications becoming available, this is the moment to invest in the global HIV response, not to retreat.”
Meanwhile, the director of the Desmond Tutu HIV Centre, Professor Linda-Gail Bekker, said: “Donor governments must act before the situation quickly spirals out of control.”
Responding to the report, a Foreign Office spokesperson told HuffPost UK: “The UK provides significant funding to the global HIV response, supporting work to end AIDs-related deaths and prevent new HIV infections.
“We remain firmly committed to tackling global health challenges, not only because it is the right thing to do, but also because it will help us deliver on our Plan for Change in the UK by supporting global stability and growth.”
