Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred: what we know so far

What’s happening?

The tropical cyclone reached the Moreton Bay islands in the early hours of Saturday, picking up speed but losing some intensity. It was downgraded from a category 2 tropical cyclone to a category 1 about 1am.

Widespread falls had already been recorded, ranging from 100mm to 200mm. Rainfall totals at 8am Saturday had reached 278mm at upper Springbrook. Gold Coast seaway had recorded 134 mm, and 153.6mm at Grafton airport since 9am.

The strongest winds were 107km/h recorded at the Gold Coast, and widespread gusts of 50km/h to 70km/h around the Brisbane metropolitan area.

The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, warned that while the cyclone been downgraded very serious risks remained.

“Its impact will be serious and will intensify over coming hours and, indeed, over coming days. It will still bring strong winds, heavy rain, flooding and dangerous conditions across south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales over this weekend and in the days beyond. Now is the time to remain alert, stay inside and look after each other.”

What can we expect?

Alfred was expected to bring widespread heavy rain and gusty winds as it crossed the coast, between Maroochydore and Bribie Island on Saturday morning, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

At 11.30am, senior meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said the ex-tropical cyclone continued to linger off the south-east Queensland coast, but was still expected to cross the mainland in coming hours.

Once it made landfall, the system would likely continue north-west and then inland, she said. The heaviest falls were now expected for the Gold Coast, Brisbane and areas just north of Brisbane.

By 6.45am the bureau advised that Alfred had weakened to a tropical low.

But while the winds had backed off, significant and severe weather warnings and flood warnings remained in place due to the rain, she said, as heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding was still expected across southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.

“For Brisbane and the Gold Coast today is likely to be the wettest day,” Bradbury said on Saturday.

What warnings are in place?

Severe weather warnings were current from Gympie down to Coffs Harbour, and as far west as Toowoomba and Stanthorpe in Queensland, senior meteorologist Dean Narramore said.

“This widespread rainfall will continue to further exacerbate the flood threat through much of south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales, which is of a concern with already many major flood warnings current in these areas.”

A number of flood warnings have been issued.

In New South Wales, these included major flood warnings for the Tweed, Wilsons, Bellinger, Richmond, Brunswick, Orara rivers and Marshalls Creek.

In Queensland, there were major flood warnings for the Bremer and Logan rivers and Warrill Creek.

Mick Logan from the Bureau of Meteorology warned that rivers were still rising and moderate flooding was already occurring in the Tweed, Richmond, Wilsons, Clarence, Bellinger and Nambucca river systems.

“River levels in the Wilsons River are still rising,” he said. “There are peaks that are upstream, that are yet to come through, and that does mean, with a combination of that and further rainfall, the major flooding is likely from around about midday and, as mentioned in the morning, levels near the height of the Lismore CBD levy are possible Saturday afternoon.”

Conditions weren’t expected to ease until late on Sunday or early next week.

What’s happening on the ground?

The State Emergency Service in NSW said it had already received 8,000 calls for assistance and responded to more than 5,200 incidents across the Northern Rivers, including 30 flood rescues in the last 24 hours.

By 10am Saturday, the SES said 20,000 people had been ordered to evacuate and 31,400 homes were subject to flood warnings.

SES coordinator Debbie Platz told the ABC the Wilsons River at Lismore was at 8.68 metres at 7.30am, raising concerns that the south Lismore levee could break.

In Queensland, more than 295,900 households on the Gold Coast, Redlands and Brisbane were without power, together with just over 42,600 in New South Wales. Six generators were currently en-route to Lismore, according to the Prime Minister.

The Australian Defence Force was providing support, including the provision of more than 180 personnel in Queensland and NSW, and more than 300,000 sandbags.

Tweed shire council has urged residents in Bilambil Heights to boil their tap water due to damage associated with the cyclone.

Have there been any injuries or people going missing?

A man lost in flood waters near Dorrigo in northern NSW on Friday was still missing, NSW police said on Saturday.

Police emergency services, the SES and fire rescue services have been unable to find the 61-year-old male, believed to be a local from the Megan township.

“His vehicle has entered a flooded bridge and was washed off. This highlights the public messaging; do not enter flooded roads, bridges or causeways,” police said.

What’s the difference between a cyclone and a tropical low?

The main difference between a tropical cyclone and a low pressure system was wind speed, according to the BoM.

Tropical cyclones were low pressure systems with characteristics that included a “warm core” and wind speeds of at least 63km/h extending more than halfway around the cyclone’s centre. They only formed when ocean water temperatures were at least 26.5C.

Tropical lows usually had lower wind speeds but could still bring severe thunderstorms and heavy rains.

What support is in place?

Albanese said the government would fast-track disaster recovery payments, of $1,000 per adult and $400 per child for people badly affected by the disaster.

“We will do so expeditiously as it appropriate,” he said. “That is activated 40 hours after the initial impact. The disaster recovery allowance is a payment for up to 13 weeks for people who are unable to work as a direct result of the disaster.”