Dutton is trying to change his ‘tough guy’ image — but could it spell trouble?

It’s not the usual sea of blue you’d be hoping to see over summer, but that’s a federal election year for you.

On Sunday, facing a crowd clad in cobalt Liberal tees in Melbourne’s Mount Waverley, Peter Dutton launched into his pitch for voters at the coming federal election.

Time to get back on track.

Law and order.

Housing.

Secure, safe, united: strong.

Strong, strong, strong.

Seeking to put himself in contrast to the man he described as one of the country’s “weakest ever” prime ministers, Peter Dutton has once again found himself on well trodden ground.

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The opposition leader is well known for his “tough guy” persona, developed off the back of years as a police officer and later as immigration and home affairs minister.

So well in fact, that it’s an image he’s been trying to reshape in high production Liberal Party videos complete with gentle tinkling music about “the real Peter Dutton”.

At the last election the Coalition lost a number of seats it had held for generations, primarily to a group of women running as “teal” independents.

They were swept into parliament on a platform of integrity, climate change action and, importantly, gender equality with many voters saying they were sick of blokes engaging in “strongman” politics.

These teal electorates are in the sights of the Coalition as they try to win government in the coming months, so why the big, strong man routine?

The Strongman (Peter’s Version)

There’s an often repeated saying that in politics the left is “mummy” and the right is “daddy” (no, not in that way.)

When society is stable socially and economically, voters are more open to a gentler, softer left leaning government: mum.

When times are harder and uncertain, the electorate gravitates to the right in search of a protector to tough out difficult times: dad.

Trite gender stereotypes aside, looking at the approach of the Coalition and their leader over recent months begs the question: is Peter Dutton gunning to be both?

He’s repeatedly referred to Anthony Albanese as weak, Australia as un-unified and repeatedly attempted to reignite culture wars around flags and ceremonies he canvassed in 2024.

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At the same time, throughout his speech at Sunday’s rally he repeatedly referred to women and children — specifically about their safety.

As we head into the election campaign proper, it appears he’s trying to keep the strongman persona but with a softened, protector element that hasn’t been at forefront much before.

Cultivating the image of, as one person describes him in the video The Peter Dutton We Know, a gentle giant.

Perception check: will this work?

With the Coalition rolling the dice on Strongman: the remix, how might this be received in the inner city seats they lost last time around?

As much as campaigners, MPs and political journalists try to get an accurate sense of “the vibe” in various electorates, sadly we’re yet to actually develop psychic powers.

But, instead of looking at a crystal ball let’s look at one of the longest running studies tracking voter behaviour: the Australian Election Study, run by the ANU.

The AES shows that since the 1990s, women have been less likely to vote conservative than men. And since 2019 the Coalition has lost support among university-educated and higher income voters.

Essentially, the very kind of person that lives in the very teal seats Liberal campaigners say they want to win back this year.

But those on the opposition benches and out door knocking insist they’re in with a real shot to flip the teal seats.

They’re banking on cost-of-living concerns having overtaken worry about climate change, saying memories of the fires of Black Summer are no longer at the front of voters’ minds like they were in 2022.

Though with wildfires continuing to rage in LA, that’s not an expectation shared by their teal opponents.

As for the strongman messaging? Well, they’re optimistic that after punishing the Coalition in 2022 teal supporters will come back into the Liberal fold they occupied for decades before.

After all, they say, these are the electorates that helped deliver a victory for the ultimate Liberal macho man: Tony Abbott.

But here’s the rub, according to the Australian election study the people who swept teals to victory are not those people.

Instead, it was more left-aligned voters who cast their ballots with the specific aim of turfing Liberal MPs.

“The view that teal voters are “disaffected Liberals” protesting the policies of their party …applies to less than one in five Teal voters,” researchers said.

“In contrast, by far the largest group are tactical voters who see their preferred party as non-viable … this is a level of tactical voting which far exceeds that found in most international studies.”

Safe(ty) seats

One teal MP, on the condition of anonymity, said while a rise in crimes such as burglaries in some areas were absolutely a concern, that was not translating to support for the Coalition at a federal level.

“Speaking to people out doorknocking, they’re very concerned about it,” she said.

“But posturing doesn’t make people feel safe, it makes them feel less secure because they see it as weaponising the issue and that puts people off.”

She also pointed to another factor in this increasingly complicated equation: these former blue-ribbon seats are getting younger.

Not just because more renters are moving into newly built apartments but because many young people can’t afford to move out of their family home.

“Twenty to 30 years ago, these people would’ve been renting in [inner city suburbs], now they can’t,” she said, noting the group seemed to be particularly put off by the “name calling” between the leaders of the two major parties.

If the Australian Election Study is anything to go by, that’s bad news for the Liberals. It found the Coalition has very little support among Millennials and Generation Z.

“The Coalition’s share of the vote fell in almost every age group, but especially among the youngest cohorts of voters.”

Do the Coalition even need to win teal seats anyway?

According to those working on flipping seats blue, there are 21 target seats on their list.

Four of them are held by teal independents: Melbourne’s Kooyong and Goldstein along with Sydney’s Wentworth and Mackellar.

Currently they need to win 20 seats to secure the 75 needed for a majority government.

This is presuming they hold on to seats like Bradfield, where independent Nicolette Boele narrowly missed out on unseating departing moderate Liberal MP Paul Fletcher.

The seat is now on a thin margin of 2.5 per cent the Coalition’s way, thanks to redistribution.

But Dutton’s launch on Sunday in the Melbourne seat of Chisholm underscores his side’s main strategy: targeting those in the outer suburbs who are struggling under the weight of the rising cost of, well, everything.

Among the seats the Coalition will be targeting are Robertson on the NSW Central Coast (currently held by ER doctor Gordon Reid on a margin of 2.2 per cent) and Bennelong on Sydney’s lower north shore where Jerome Laxale is the only the second Labor MP to have represented the electorate.

Also on the list are the Queensland Greens-held seats Brisbane (3.7 per cent) and Ryan (2.6 per cent) along with Labor’s Blair (5.2 per cent).

But even if the Coalition manages to defend all of its seats and flip all 16 Labor and Greens seats on its target list, it will still need to win back all four teal seats in its sights.

Most vulnerable are Kooyong’s Monique Ryan on a margin of 2.2 per cent in her Melbourne seat, where she’s facing a challenge from Liberal Amelia Hamer.

If the Coalition can’t win back these four teal seats, that may leave them facing a big question: Can the strongman negotiate a minority government?