Coalition loses some momentum as ‘thought bubbles’ float into the policy void

When Norman Mailer landed in Kinshasa to cover the Rumble in the Jungle half a century ago, the great American writer feared for the aging boxer Mohammad Ali’s literal life.

George Foreman — the fitter, younger opponent — looked lethal. Defeat was “in the air”, Mailer thought. 

But eight days before the fight, Foreman sustained an eye injury while training. The showdown was delayed by five weeks.

The pause turned out to matter a great deal.

Ali used it to boost his endurance and strength to weather and fatigue Foreman’s inevitable heavy blows, like a “dope on the ropes”.

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Delayed election hampers Coalition’s momentum

War scholars have written at length about the effects of deferred combat on soldier morale and motivation.

Not everyone masters the struggle with boredom and violence unexpectedly sheathed. Some use a healing hiatus wisely. Others let the doubts creep in.

Two weeks ago, as Cyclone Alfred drifted towards Queensland, Anthony Albanese scrapped plans to trigger the campaign for an April 12 election date. We’d be nearing the halfway mark had he stuck to his original plan.

Liberal insiders admit the prime minister’s decision has disrupted the Coalition’s mojo.

A 30-day campaign was locked and loaded, every moment planned, with policies to promote and ammunition for Coalition candidates to tear down Labor or teal candidates.

Instead Peter Dutton’s team are on hold, wondering where to direct their aim. The government, by contrast, is still in charge of all the big levers.

“It’s messing with our heads,” one strategist said.

Morale has taken a hit. There’s a niggling fear voters are drifting away from Dutton, that he peaked too soon.

‘As mad an idea as I have heard in a long time’

Without a plan of action, the opposition has looked unsure, ill-disciplined and at times downright sloppy.

Half-baked ideas have filled the void, such as Dutton’s plan to pursue a referendum that would empower politicians to deport Australians who hold citizenship in other countries and commit serious crimes.

Costly, unlikely to succeed, it’s a solution aimed at a set of real world cases experts say is counted in “the ones and twos” per year.

Some of the loudest critics were on his own side. Former attorney-general George Brandis called it “as mad an idea as I have heard in a long time”.

Liberal campaigners knocking on doors got the same message. “Every voter we met today is giving us hell on this referendum,” said one.

Dutton’s misstep on the referendum is far from fatal. But it comes alongside other hints the Coalition’s campaign has stumbled in recent weeks.

There have been contradictory statements from shadow frontbenchers on Coalition plans to force insurance companies to split up. Plans to cancel public servant work-from-home entitlements have been partially walked back. There is a lack of clarity over how many public sector jobs will be cut under a future Dutton government.

Dutton’s biggest pitch to date — the promise to build seven fission reactors — rarely mentions the word nuclear. It has become the energy policy that dare not speak its name.

Coalition backers pin hopes on speech

These factors are becoming apparent in the political tea leaves. Polling shows the opposition leader’s head-start over Albanese, for whom there is no great enthusiasm among voters, has waned.

Betting odds have narrowed. Two-party preferred surveys have flipped from a Coalition lead to a Labor one.

None of which is to say the game is up. Labor has plenty of baggage, including a leader who struggles to cut through, with no real agenda to inspire. Voters are not yet convinced he will change their lives for the better, surveys suggest.

Coalition backers are hoping Dutton can turn the tide this week when he delivers the opposition’s budget reply speech on Thursday.

Many believe the nationally broadcast response is more consequential than Tuesday’s budget, where expectations have been managed downwards to near zero.

Some opposition figures say Dutton needs a big picture, breakthrough policy that can re-capture the political agenda when the campaign starts, potentially as early as Friday.

If he doesn’t deliver, his own troops may be the first to become anxious.

Early voting is set to start in about four weeks from now, so the clock is already ticking.

Much can and will no doubt unfold in that time. The Reserve Bank has another interest rate meeting on April 1 and within hours after that Donald Trump is almost certain to unveil a fresh wave of tariffs on Australian exporters.

Those wildcards mean the coming contest is very much alive.

Former Victorian Liberal Party state deputy director Tony Barry says polls and sentiments are shifting fast at the moment.

He has detected sharp reversals in mood across key slices of the electorate — such as outer suburban areas — seemingly off singular events. A radio interview can change the outlook instantly within those groups, he says.

Driving this volatility is the huge undecided or “soft” vote across the country.

Around 47 per cent to 49 per cent of people surveyed have no strong affinity to either side, says Barry, who compares that to the John Howard era when that number was 20 per cent.

Even at the recent WA election, which Labor won without raising a sweat, Barry says it came in at 22 per cent in pre-election day polls.

All of which suggests the coming federal campaign — once this hiatus ends — could matter more than most election years.

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Campaign could matter more than usual 

Academic research suggests that election battles are not as important to voters as you might think. Most people have made up their mind about who they prefer well in advance.

Despite weeks of media coverage, fevered debate and big-dollar advertising campaigns, the average shift in two-party preferred support between polls at the start of hostilities and election day is about 1 percentage point.

But when one in two voters need to be pressed hard on who they “lean” towards, says Barry, either party could end up winning if they play their cards right.

“The campaign will matter more than normal,” he says. “Quite often in campaigns, polls don’t move. Last time the only question was ‘will the teals win?'”

“This time, performance, discipline and persuasive messaging will matter.”

Labor insiders worry that Albanese is not a great campaigner. His best week during the 2022 race was when he had COVID-19. 

But that was the last war. There’s a new opposition leader and a different political backdrop.

Sportsbet on Friday had the lowest odds for a Labor minority government, paying $2.60. A Coalition minority would win a punter $2.75. The payout for an Albanese outright victory is $6.50. A few weeks ago it was $15.

Those are the kind of movements in sentiment that idled political troops can sense in their bones.

As Napoleon’s maxim goes: “Morale is to the physical as three is to one.” This mood stuff matters.

By this time next week, we’ll no doubt find out who best handled the campaign delay.