Key events
This is Bournemouth’s 300th game in the Premier League. In seven full seasons so far, their best finish was ninth in 2016-17. If they win today, they will be eighth, but their next three fixtures are all against teams above them – Arsenal away, Villa home, Man City away. They finish with what looks like a less daunting assignment, at home to Leicester, although funny things do happen on the final day.
Teams in full
Bournemouth (probable 4-2-3-1) Arrizabalaga; Smith, Zabarnyi, Huijsen, Kerkez; Scott, Adams; Semenyo, Kluivert, Ouattara; Evanilson.
Subs: Dennis, Araujo, Senesi, Soler, Hill, Cook, Brooks, Tavernier, Jebbison.
Man United (probable 3-4-2-1) Onana; Mazraoui, Maguire, Yoro; Dorgu, Casemiro, Fernandes, Shaw; Garnacho, Mainoo; Højlund.
Subs: Heaton, Lindelof, Fredericson, Evans, Amass, Ugarte, Eriksen, Mount, Obi.
Teams in brief: Bournemouth unchanged
It was another disappointing result for Bournemouth last weekend, 0-0 against ten men at Crystal Palace, but Iraola sees no reason to change a drawing team.
Teams in brief: Shaw starts
Luke Shaw, who has had such a tough time with injuries, makes his first start under Amorim, his first this season, his first since he played for England in the Euro final, and his first for United since they faced Luton 14 months ago.
Whether he’s at centre-back or wing-back remains to be seen: Amorim prefers him to stay central, but Diogo Dalot’s injury means there’s a vacancy at wing-back. It will either be filled by Noussair Mazraoui with Patrick Dorgu remaining on the left, or by Shaw with Dorgu switching to the right. Shaw would be the more creative option.
Preamble
Afternoon everyone and welcome to a contest that could have been a cracker. Bournemouth, who were fifth at Christmas, should still be in the fascinating tussle for Champions League places. Manchester United, who were only four points off the top three when Ruben Amorim arrived, should be there or thereabouts too. Instead this game pits 10th against 15th, and the main interest lies in seeing whether Bournemouth can do the double over United. This is becoming a familiar feeling for Amorim – Newcastle did it, Forest did it, even Ange’s Spurs did it – but would be a first for Bournemouth.
On form you might expect both these teams to lose. For the past three months, they have been as bad as each other in the league. Both have played 10, won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5. Both have conceded 14 goals during that run, while Bournemouth have scored 11 and United 10. Only the relegated clubs have done worse.
Opta makes Bournemouth warm favourites to win today, with a 54pc chance to United’s 22. In the reverse fixture Bournemouth won 3-0, even though, according to xG on fbref, United had slightly the better chances (2.2-1.6). “The game was quite level,” Andoni Iraola said on Friday. “It was not a 3-0 game.” But if anyone can get his team out of their slump, it’s United. Bournemouth are just the sort of opponents – mid-table, well drilled, clinical on the counter – that Amorim’s back five can’t handle.
For the travelling fans, as if they didn’t have enough sorrows already, there’s a bitter piece of history beckoning on the long journey home. With Liverpool playing straight afterwards, this is probably the last time United will take the field as the only English team with 20 league titles. When Virgil van Dijk lifts the Premier League trophy, it will deepen the curious resemblance between the two clubs. They’re like a pair of brothers who are so busy shouting at each other that they can’t see how similar they are.
