The Productivity Commission says governments are shirking “meaningful action” to close the gap, as new data reveals soaring rates of Indigenous imprisonment and ongoing failures to reduce rates of suicides and children in out-of-home care.
Productivity Commissioner and Gungarri man Selwyn Button called the continuation of business-as-usual by governments “the definition of insanity”.
The commission’s latest data shows a 15 per cent spike in imprisonment rates of Indigenous adults in just one year, between 2022 and 2023.
Rates of suicide, child removals and early childhood development are still worsening for First Nations people since the baseline year of 2018/19.
Arrernte and Luritja woman Catherine Liddle said these statistics aren’t just about numbers, but about real people’s lives.
“When we’re looking at where those statistics are really failing, it is failing our children,” she said.
“We know that if families do not have the supports around them to genuinely engage, then that child will suffer.”
Overall, only four of the 19 targets are on track to be met nationally by their deadline: early childhood education, employment, land rights and sea rights.
That’s a drop from last year when five targets were on track, with the target to increase the rate of babies born at a healthy weight no longer looking likely to be met.
Ms Liddle is the deputy convenor for the Coalition of Peaks, which represents more than 80 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community-controlled peak bodies.
She said all levels of government must deliver on their commitments under the 2020 National Agreement.
“The data is beyond serious … what we need is governments of all colours to step up,” she said.
“We’re seeing areas that need critical and urgent attention, like incarceration, child protection, suicide targets. Those things are interlinked, and they’re moving too slow.”
Call for governments to ‘step up’
Federal, state, territory and local governments, along with the Coalition of Peaks, are jointly accountable for the outcomes under the National Agreements.
Mr Button said little improvement can be expected without processes to hold parties to account for their work.
“None of them exist at the moment. Unless we have an independent mechanism in place at a national level and at jurisdictional levels, we’re certainly not going to see the progress that that we need,” he said.
This call for action follows a scathing assessment last year by the Productivity Commission, that state and federal governments were “failing” to implement what has been promised under the National Agreement.
Ms Liddle urged leaders to take note of its findings.
“The Productivity Commission did its review last year when it said, ‘Wake up, wake up. There is a road map there, and as governments, you are not committing to the reforms that you need in order to get progress,'” she said.
The first independent Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander-led review is also underway, run by the Jumbunna Institute for Indigenous Education and Research at UTS, which the Coalition of Peaks said will be a key accountability mechanism.
Minister for Indigenous Australians Senator Malarndirri McCarthy told the ABC the federal government remains committed to improving the lives of First Nations people but acknowledged there is “more to do”.
“The National Agreement on Closing the Gap, signed by all Australian Governments in 2020, remains the critical framework for delivering improved outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, in partnership with states and territories, local government and First Nations Peak organisations,” she said.
While there are no individual targets for each state and territory, the Productivity Commission monitors the progress of each jurisdiction.
Mr Button said breaking down the data in this way can be revealing.
“We’re seeing variable trends, some states are regressing, some states are doing OK,” he said.
For example, some states have made progress on healthy weights, despite the national rate declining.
“When you break it down to jurisdictions where you know that … there’s investment in community-controlled services, and there’s mums and bubs programs that have existed for long periods of time … those jurisdictions are showing that they’re still well on track to achieve the target,” he said.
He said these successes showed the importance of governments working in close partnership with community-controlled organisations and First Nations peak bodies.
Click the boxes below to see how each state and territory is performing.
NSW
There have been improvements for most targets in NSW, including increasing the proportion of people who have completed a tertiary qualification and an improvement in the life expectancy of First Nations people.
Adult imprisonment rates here continue to worsen when compared with the rest of the population, as well as children starting school developmentally on track — emotionally, physically and socially.
NSW Minister for Aboriginal Affairs and Treaty David Harris told the ABC the NSW government was committed to the National Agreement but acknowledged that “these are complex issues with no quick fixes”.
“We are partnering with Aboriginal organisations to ensure they participate in shared decision making to help ensure they are at the centre of decisions that affect them. When Closing the Gap solutions are designed, led and implemented by Aboriginal people and communities, we get better outcomes,” he said.
Mr Harris said the state was investing in diversionary programs targeted at addressing the high incarceration rates for adults and continues to “look at options” for early intervention for young people.
QLD
In Queensland, there have been improvements in life expectancy, birth-weight, child development, employment and education targets, and housing.
However, the targets on adult incarceration, youth detention and child removals are worsening.
Queensland Minister for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Partnerships Fiona Simpson has acknowledged that more than half of the 19 national targets are still not on track to be met.
“The Crisafulli government has already started delivering on its election commitment to focus on home ownership, improving health services and boosting education to support Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Queenslanders,” she said.
VIC
Victoria showed improvements in the majority of targets — including more babies born at a healthy weight and reduced numbers of youth in detention.
It was the only state to see a reduction in incarceration rates of First Nations adults in this latest assessment.
But what was worsening was the rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander kids in out-of-home care.
A Victorian government spokesperson told the ABC that it is working to “meet and exceed” its targets to close the gap under the National Agreement.
“In Victoria, we are advancing Treaty and Truth as recommended by the Productivity Commission in their 2024 Review on Closing the Gap,” they said.
“The safety and wellbeing of children is at the centre of everything we do, and we are listening to First Peoples about policies that directly affect them so that we can deliver practical change.”
WA
In Western Australia, there were improvements across most targets — including life expectancy, education and employment targets, and rates of youth in detention.
However, the state saw worsening outcomes in birth-weight, child development and adult incarceration.
A WA government spokesperson told the ABC, “the 2024-25 state budget affirmed our commitment with a significant increase in funding to services that support empowerment, self-determination and wellbeing for Aboriginal people.”
“Closing the Gap will require a sustained effort over time, and we are committed to working in partnership with Aboriginal Western Australians to grow their communities — both economically and socially.”
NT
The NT showed improvement against only half of the Closing the Gap targets. These included housing, land rights, sea rights, and child protection.
Life expectancy for First Nations women has gone backwards in the NT.
Targets around employment are also worsening, as well as birth-weight, early childhood education, child development, youth engagement, employment, adult incarceration, and youth detention.
Northern Territory Minister for Aboriginal Affairs Steve Edgington said that the CLP government remained committed to the National Agreement on Closing the Gap.
“The Northern Territory has the highest proportion of Aboriginal residents living in remote and very remote areas (74.5%) and faces unique and complex challenges,” Mr Edgington said.
He said the NT government, with the support of the Commonwealth government, is making major investments into remote services across the Territory, including $842.6 million over six years to ensure communities have access to critical services.
ACT
In the ACT, there has been improvement for most targets — including more babies born at a healthy weight and reducing the over-representation of First Nations children in out-of-home care.
The data also shows worsening in youth detention and people living in overcrowded homes.
“The ACT government is carefully reviewing the data released by the Productivity Commission on Closing the Gap,” a spokesperson told the ABC.
“We are pleased to report gains across some of the socio-economic targets, with in some cases the ACT is leading the nation.
“In others we need to do much better, and we acknowledge we can only achieve these outcomes in partnership with the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community.”
SA
Like other states, in South Australia there have been improvements for most targets, including reducing the rate of young people in detention.
However, the state saw worsening outcomes across three areas — adult incarceration, youth engagement in employment, education or training and kids in out-of-home care.
A spokesperson told the ABC that the SA government was investing in fee-free TAFE and vocational education places, as well as early intervention programs to support families and reduce the rate of child removals.
They said the SA government was also investing in post-release and bail accommodation, and “will continue working with Aboriginal communities to ensure people aren’t incarcerated simply because they have nowhere else to go.”
They acknowledged there was more work to be done, and that “we can only achieve better outcomes by ensuring Aboriginal people have a say in the services and programs that affect them.”
TAS
In Tasmania, most targets have shown improvement, including birth-weight.
But the rate of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people able to secure appropriate, affordable housing is diminishing.
Adult incarceration and child removal targets are also worsening.
A Tasmanian government spokesperson said the state was “performing better than the national average against 10 targets, and the same as the national average against one”.
“While we are on the right track overall, we acknowledge there is more to do to ensure we can continue to improve across all the targets and their associated indicators.”
