Australia’s property market is losing steam, with house prices recording their weakest result since January 2023
National home prices are losing momentum and anticipated interest rate cuts are unlikely to stop falls in house prices next year.
New CoreLogic data shows house prices increased 0.1 per cent nationally in the last month of spring — the weakest Australia-wide result since January 2023.
Nationally, prices grew 5.5 per cent over the year and the median value of housing now stands at $812,933.
Melbourne, where housing values have fallen over 10 of the past 12 months, recorded a 0.4 per cent fall over the month, taking values 2.3 lower over the past year.
In Sydney, CoreLogic says August likely marked the peak of the cycle, with values falling 0.1 per cent in October and by 0.2 per cent in November.
On a rolling quarterly basis, four of the eight capitals recorded a fall in values, led by Melbourne (down 1 per cent) and joined by Darwin (down 0.7 per cent), Sydney (down 0.5 per cent) and Canberra (down 0.3 per cent).
CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen says nationally this was the 22nd straight month of growth but that could not be expected to continue.
“It could be the last monthly increase we see for a while, as economic conditions continue to put a strain on households and buyer demand moves lower,” Ms Owen said.
“There’s lots of indications that the downswing phase of the cycle is upon us, and we’ve got four capital city markets now in quarterly decline.”
Eliza Owen says a downswing is expected. (ABC News: John Gunn)
‘A buyer’s market’ as more homes get listed for sale
The slowdown in the pace of growth comes as more owner-occupiers and investors consider selling, with Melbourne and Sydney losing most steam.
CoreLogic says that based on the volume of houses and units advertised for sale over the four weeks ending November 24, capital city listings are up 16 per cent since the end of winter.
Perth (up 33 per cent) and Adelaide (25 per cent) recorded the largest lift in advertised stock levels through the spring season.
Sydney and Melbourne listings are now tracking 10.4 per cent and 9.1 per cent above their previous five-year averages, to be at their highest level for this time of the year since 2018.
Ms Owen says it is turning out to be a better market for buyers than sellers.
“You’ve got rising stock levels and fewer buyers than this time last year,” Ms Owen said.
“The clearance rate is also lower, and that’s a really good indicator of where the real estate market is at.”
The combined capital cities clearance rate has been holding below 60 per cent for the past six weeks and median selling times are trending higher for private treaty sales.
Should you consider selling your home without an agent?
In this so-called better market for buyers, some people have been looking to sell their homes without an agent.
Comedian and actor Brett D’Souza tried to sell his home in Melbourne’s inner northern suburb of Brunswick on his own without an agent last year when house prices had started to trend down.
He says he picked the wrong time to sell and made other “mistakes” on the way that he has learnt from, but would not discourage others thinking of selling without an agent.
Brett D’Souza says he “made mistakes” when he tried to sell his home without an agent, but doesn’t discourage others from trying. (ABC News: Nassim Khadem)
D’Souza had hoped to reap $1.8 million for the property.
In May 2023, he launched what he dubbed “Australasia’s greatest house sale”, creating his own marketing campaign through a YouTube series that included comedy stunts and jibes about agents.
In one of the videos, he described real estate agents as “charlatans”.
Asked months later why he made that characterisation, he answers: “The whole ‘price it low, watch it go’ ethos is a weird thing.
“Like, there’s laws in place to stop underquoting, yet it’s rampant,” D’Souza says.
The videos got D’Souza more followers and ended up working as a kind of showreel for his comedy career.
But they also deterred serious buyers — D’Souza says many people did not think the home was genuinely up for sale.
“Legitimacy was a problem,” he tells ABC News.
“The other thing that I wanted to do was promote my filmmaking skills … but it didn’t probably help sell the house, I’ll be honest.”
In the end, D’Souza had to call an agent.
With the help of one, he sold his home in August for $1.39 million.
“There was an unrealistic expectation,” he says, noting he put his home for sale as interest rates were rising.
“I made some mistakes, but the price was too high and I sold it the wrong time.”
Another error he thinks he made was not following up with buyers who were interested.
“I think I went over the top with the silliness and the comedy and the filmmaking — 100 per cent,” he says.
“To any people wanting to sell their house, I think it’s very doable. You just need to do the paperwork and do the follow-up and just make sure that anyone who comes — call them up [afterwards].
“The hardest thing about selling a house is cleaning up for open inspections.”
Brett D’Souza says selling a home “isn’t brain surgery” but to “do your research” and pick the right time to sell. (ABC News: Nassim Khadem)
D’Souza urges anyone looking to sell on their own to “do your research” and “price realistically”.
“It’s not brain surgery,” he says.
“Make sure that what you’re after is reasonable. In hindsight, I would just try to sell a year earlier, when interest rates were still at 1 per cent — it’s so much about timing.
“The first time I did it [tried to put the home up for sale], I took photographs on my iPhone. Not a good move. Get a photographer in, which a lot of those companies will do.”
House price falls expected in 2025
Regardless of whether people use an agent or not, CoreLogic’s Eliza Owen says house price falls are expected next year.
Ms Owen says interest rate cuts forecast to happen later next year will help to stimulate buyer demand but given the “expectation of a rate cut seems to be getting pushed further and further out in the short term, I can’t see this weakening trend in Australia’s housing market turning around”.
Three of the big four bank economic teams now believe the Reserve Bank will not deliver a 0.25 percentage point cut until May 2025.
CBA still predicts the first cash rate cut will come in February next year.
“I think we’ll continue to see declines in many of our capital cities and a slowdown in the growth rate for Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide,” Ms Owen said.
“It could be another seven months before we see a bit of a turnaround in the market.”
Ms Owen also notes there is “much uncertainty in 2025 — not just the domestic economic conditions, but also geopolitical risks. The threat of trade tariffs, and how that affects our economy with our major trading partners”.
For now, Perth’s pace of capital gain continues to lead the nation, with values up 1.1 per cent over the month and 3 per cent higher over the quarter.
Perth’s pace of capital gain continues to lead the nation, CoreLogic says. (ABC News: Gian De Poloni)
But CoreLogic suggests it was the softest rise over a rolling three-month period since April 2023 and less than half the rate of growth recorded through the June quarter at 6.7 per cent.
Brisbane’s quarterly rate of growth was 1.8 per cent, the slowest pace of gains since March 2023, while Adelaide’s 2.8 per cent rise in values over the past three months was the lowest since June 2023.
Rents are also seeing flat numbers.
The national rental index has continued a relatively flat run of growth, rising 0.2 per cent in November to be 5.3 per cent higher over the past 12 months.
This annual change in national rents was the smallest since April 2021.
One year ago, rents were increasing at the annual rate of 8.1 per cent and by more than 9 per cent over the prior two years.
