Australia is experiencing an almost two-decade low in births despite the population growing by 2.1 per cent in the past financial year, a demographer has warned.
According to new data issued by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the population increased by about 552,000 people in the year to June, when about 666,800 people arrived in the country and about 221,200 people left.
“This means that 445,600 people were added to our population for the year to 30 June, 2024, continuing a recent downward trend in net overseas migration,” said Beidar Cho, ABS head of demography.
The fall in net overseas migration as indicated in the data would drive a political debate, said Australian National University’s demographer Liz Allen.
“It will be used by one side of politics to argue that policies enacted have been effective, and it will be used by a different side of politics to argue the exact opposite,” she said.
“So, these figures will remain fresh in the minds of those creating rhetoric and will be used to argue points heading into the new year, which of course, sets the foundation for the upcoming federal election.
“That’s important because we’ve already seen foundations laid for population being a major element of the next federal election, primarily around the issue of immigration, and whether immigration is too high, too low, or just right for the nation.”
All jurisdictions in Australia saw their populations grow during the past financial year.
Western Australia saw the fastest rise with 2.8 per cent, while Tasmania had the slowest rate of growth with 0.3 per cent.
The ABS said net overseas migration was the biggest contributor to population growth in most places in the country. The only exception is the Northern Territory where its growth was driven by net interstate migration.
For Dr Allen, there were no surprises with the population change in states and territories.
“Western Australia generally has been doing quite well for itself because of the opportunities that are present in Western Australia; we’re seeing net overseas migration contributing quite substantially to Western Australia’s population,” she said.
“So, it’s not like people are packing up and leaving and heading to WA, but rather the largest share is net overseas migration toward their population growth.”
There were about 289,100 births and 182,700 deaths registered over this period. Births dropped by about 0.7 per cent, while deaths fell by about 2.9 per cent.
The fall in deaths, Dr Allen said, was down to a decline in excess mortality that was driven by COVID-19.
“We are still seeing excess mortality overall, but that peak has fallen, and that, of course, is good,” she said.
“But we still do need to understand that excess mortality is still occurring, and it’s impacting some areas of the population in terms of disadvantage, more so than others.”
Dr Allen said the estimate for births, which was currently only a preliminary estimate, was the lowest annual increase since the 2007/08 period.
“We’re on track to see potentially those declines increase and the total fertility rate impacted, meaning that we are headed into unknown territory as it relates to low fertility rate,” Dr Allen said.
She explained that was not a problem in its own right if the low fertility rate reflected choices made by Australians.
“What we’re seeing is that people are foregoing having much-desired children because life is getting in the way, and that’s because the barriers to having a family and now insurmountable,” she said.
Dr Allen said the current state of housing affordability, economic security, gender inequality and climate change were some of the factors impacting fertility.
Without changes to address these issues, she said the current demographic trajectory surrounding the country’s fertility rate would not change.
“In a bigger picture, these data are sitting with the trends that suggest that Australia could be headed for a local population decline by 2054,” she said
“We’ve got to a point of absolute catastrophe on multiple fronts of crisis, we are headed into strong demographic headwinds.
“The time for fixing this is over. We need to kick ourselves into emergency gear — the only way we’re going to get out of this mess.”
