Some politicians have the gift and luxury of being able to tune into the country’s mood when it matters most.
Independent senator Jacqui Lambie this week channelled the Australian Zeitgeist and turned the volume up to 11 to speak some home truths about Donald Trump.
Like all good populists, her words hit a nerve in a way that only recent voter data can really explain. Speaking with me on the eve of Anthony Albanese’s much-anticipated phone call with Trump, where the PM was putting the case for exemptions to fresh tariffs, in vintage Lambie style she warned him not to “suck up”.
“[America] need[s] Australia more than what we need them, and they need our critical minerals. So, if Trump wants to play with Australia, I suggest you start getting your cowboy hats on,” Lambie said.
“… Don’t play bloody Trump’s bluff. Don’t play it. You don’t move Albo. Don’t you move on him. Don’t you dare. Don’t suck up.”
And just like that she dropped the mic.
Jacqui Lambie’s comments on Donald Trump reflect voter feelings, new data shows. (AAP: Luke Stephenson )
In the last two sitting weeks of parliament, Trump inserted himself into our domestic politics every single day. Trump, who is known for using Steve Bannon’s strategy of flooding the zone to distract and overwhelm the media, delivered the ultimate “muzzle velocity” — sucking up all the oxygen and forcing a response from our politicians on everything from his plan to own and develop Gaza to imposing tariffs.
While surely it would have been fun in a parallel universe for the PM to take Lambie’s advice, on the cusp of an election doing anything that could jeopardise a trade exemption was never an option for an Australian prime minister. The PM pulled off the first step in what will be a complicated and tiresome dance: he came out of a conversation with Trump unscathed and with hope of a deal to exempt our steel and aluminium.
There was no evidence of overt “sucking up”, and perhaps that’s a good thing if you look at the latest Australian polling numbers on Trump.
Trump and tech bros on the nose
In a survey conducted last month of 1,000 Australians by Talbot Mills Research, 49 per cent of those questioned disapproved of the job Trump was doing as US president. Interestingly, the biggest group was 34 per cent, who said they strongly disapproved of the job he was doing.
By contrast, only 16 per cent strongly approved of the job he was doing and 25 per cent said they somewhat approved. Put together though, it is higher than you’d expect. That means 41 per cent of Australians think Trump is doing a good job.
Asked how strongly they approved or disapproved of the United States acquiring Greenland, expansionism wasn’t on trend in Australia, with only 18 per cent in support and a staggering 56 per cent disapproving.
Support for Trump and US annexation of Greenland was strongest with young men.
In fact, that’s the most consistent theme in all the data; younger men like Trump and are more sympathetic of his strongman expansionist tendencies.
Talbot Mills Research director David Talbot said there was a stark divide in Australians’ attitudes towards Trump, with a clear skew towards disapproval.
“About half of Australians disapprove of Trump’s performance, including 34 per cent who strongly disapprove,” he said
“This reinforces polling undertaken in the lead-up to the US election that Trump’s brand of conservative populism isn’t easily replaceable here because Trump is viewed mostly negatively by Australians.”
And when it comes to the tech billionaires, Australians hold a special and intense dislike for Elon Musk, with 59 per cent expressing unfavourable feelings towards him. Meta owner Mark Zuckerberg comes second in the unlikeability stakes at 54 per cent unfavourable.
The disdain for the men who run Silicon Valley and have seemingly disproportionate power over Trump gives a sense of the mood of the country. There is frustration at the growing narrative that the Big Tech bosses are really in charge and the numbers don’t lie.
Talbot says Musk’s reputation in Australia has taken a beating, with nearly 60 per cent of Australians having an unfavourable view. “We’ll have to wait and see whether these negative views impact on consumer behaviour, but sentiment this strong suggests some brand damage for Musk’s business ventures in the Australian market,” he said.
The campaigns and causes both Trump and Musk have attached themselves to are commonly framed as being on the ascendancy around the world.
But what is their political impact as our election looms? Is a campaign against wokeism really going to cut it in Australia?
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Trump surfacing in Australian focus groups
In recent focus group research conducted by RedBridge Group, negative things have been said about Peter Dutton based on what voters interpret as him copying Trump.
Tony Barry, director at RedBridge Group, said the election would mostly be about which party had the stronger economic credentials when it came to individual financial security, and Albanese “can’t let Dutton own that for free”.
Barry said Redbridge Group qualitative research from the past two weeks showed soft voters had limited recall of anything the major party leaders had said about salient issues such as cost of living, housing or economic management.
“Soft or persuadable voters have negligible recall of anything from Albanese in the past fortnight while others have some emerging negative associations of Dutton based on what they interpret as him copying Donald Trump,” he said.
He said these soft voter evaluations were that neither leader had recently been talking about the economy and housing because they either didn’t understand their economic anxieties or they didn’t have a credible plan.
“In their assessment, Albanese has performed poorly on these personally salient issues, but they need to see more from Dutton than [him] saying, ‘We’re not Labor,’ which is a shapeless position,” Barry said.
“If Dutton is to get to 76 seats, he has to own the economic narrative and not move the conversation to fringe issues that most voters don’t see as personally relevant.”
However you slice and dice it, Australians are making it clear that they want answers to their economic malaise, and super-rich powerful Americans and their obsessions are not the same as theirs.
Patricia Karvelas is presenter of Q+A on Monday nights on ABC TV and host of ABC News Afternoon Briefing at 4pm weekdays on ABC News Channel. She is also co-host of the weekly Party Room podcast with Fran Kelly and host of politics and news podcast Politics Now.
