Climate change is predicted to increase the likelihood of city fires worldwide, according to a groundbreaking study conducted by Australian and international researchers.
Researchers from Hefei University in China led the study, which included findings from RMIT and Charles Darwin University.
They analysed fires and monthly maximum air temperatures from more than 2,800 cities in 20 countries, including the USA, UK, Australia and China.
Collectively, these cities were home to more than 20 per cent of the world’s population.
In the peer-reviewed study published in Nature Cities, researchers found that by 2100, there could be an 11.6 per cent increase in vehicle fires and a 22.2 per cent increase in outdoor fires due to global warming.
The research showed that for every 1 degree increase in air temperature, the frequencies of vehicle and outdoor fires would increase by between 3.3 per cent and 6.9 per cent, respectively.
The Statue of Liberty was covered in haze and smoke caused by wildfires in Canada. (REUTERS: Amr Alfiky)
New Zealand had the strongest link between fires and a warming climate, which would see about 40 per cent more city fires by 2100 with unmitigated warming of more than 4 degrees.
“The results make the current fire strategies especially alarming. Inappropriate strategies for different fire types offer false promises for climate mitigation, with real consequences of fire casualties and economic damages,” lead researcher Long Shi told the ABC.
The historic study quantified changes in the frequency of various types of urban-fire incidents, including the burning of city buildings, vehicles and outdoor areas, such as landfill sites, in response to a warming climate.
Fire deaths by 2100 to rise
Fires across the world cause an estimated 50,000 deaths and 170,000 injuries every year, but this study found that number could rise even further.
The study found that global warming could lead to an unexpectedly high volume of fire deaths.
Globally, the researchers estimated these changes would lead to 335,000 fire-related deaths and 1.1 million injuries from 2020 to 2100 — but if warming is kept below 1.5 degrees Celsius, those deaths could be halved.
Professor Long said when they were exploring the data they said the findings were “beyond our expectation”.
“We found that the building fire frequency overall was going on a decreasing trend under global warming. But this does not mean all countries and regions could [would] go through the same trend,” he said.
He said some countries could have an increased building fire frequency under global warming.
Researchers did not include data from Africa and South America.
The authors of the study believed the findings of the research could serve as a foundation for developing new strategies to combat fires, such as improving the management of fire fuel.
“Future trends of fire frequency in urban environments are uncertain, even though they often cause more human casualties and economic damage than some other fire types, such as wildfires. This lack of understanding might compromise regional fire resource management and urban planning,” the researchers said.
Researchers said the findings on vehicle fires might not reflect recent shifts to electric vehicles.
